有色金属周报（工业硅、多晶硅）：基本面暂无实质性改善，价格持续低位承压-20250617

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have not improved substantially, and prices continue to be under pressure at low levels. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and short - term improvement is difficult. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices: As of June 13, 2025, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract was 7,280 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from June 6. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, with only a few showing minor fluctuations [8]. - Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices: The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract in East China was 33,695 yuan/ton on June 13, down 3.01% from June 6. Spot prices of various polysilicon grades decreased, such as N - type material down 2.82% [8]. - Organic Silicon and Related Product Prices: As of June 13, the average price of DMC was 10,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous period; the average price of 107 glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silicone oil was 13,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [8][91]. - Silicon Wafer Prices: Prices of all sizes of silicon wafers decreased, with N - type 183mm silicon wafers down 3.19% [8]. - Battery Cell Prices: The price of single - crystal PERC M10 - 182mm battery cells was 0.27 yuan/watt on June 13, down 2.55% from the previous period [8]. - Component Prices: Component prices continued to decline, reflecting weak market sentiment [73]. - Aluminum Alloy Prices: As of June 13, the average price of ADC12 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous period; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, up 2.42% [8][103]. 3.2 Cost and Production Factors - Raw Material Costs: The price of silica stone continued to be weak, and the price of silicon coal and petroleum coke was also weak. The average price of carbon electrodes was 6,850 yuan/ton on June 13, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of graphite electrodes was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [13][28][30]. - Electricity Costs: The alternation of flat and dry water periods led to a decline in electricity prices in Southwest China, which reduced the production cost of industrial silicon [18]. - Industrial Silicon Production: In the week of June 13, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang increased slightly, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan increased due to the adjustment of electricity prices [35][36]. - Polysilicon Production: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.07 million tons from the previous month but down 8.09 million tons year - on - year. As of June 12, the polysilicon inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises increased and decreased, and production was expected to increase slightly [62]. - Organic Silicon Production: In May, the operating rate of Chinese DMC was 62.37%, up 3.79 percentage points from the previous month, and the output was 18.4 million tons. In June, the operating rate may decline due to maintenance in some regions [85]. - Aluminum Alloy Production: In the week of June 12, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, unchanged from the previous week [100]. 3.3 Inventory and Market Outlook - Industrial Silicon Inventory: As of June 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from the previous period; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 23.57 million tons, down 0.32 million tons. As of June 13, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 57,920 lots, equivalent to 28.96 million tons of spot [114]. - Market Outlook: The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to range from 32,000 - 36,000 yuan/ton [3].