铝价维持强势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Copper: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly around 78,500 yuan. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, risk appetite rebounded, and the gold price continued to fall. On the industrial level, on June 16th, the weekly inventory of electrolytic copper in social warehouses slightly decreased, and the spread between July and August contracts rebounded. With a warming macro - atmosphere and strong industrial support, the copper price may continue to rise [5]. - Aluminum: Today, the aluminum price increased in volume and open interest, and the main contract price approached the 20,500 - yuan mark. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, and risk appetite rebounded. On the industrial level, domestic demand was good, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline. As the futures price rises, downstream demand may be affected, and the spread between July and August contracts has declined. It is expected that the futures price will remain strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - Nickel: Today, the nickel price decreased in volume and open interest, breaking below the 119,000 - yuan mark. Since last week, nickel has shown weakness in the non - ferrous metals sector, mainly due to its industrial weakness and news - related impacts. Since last Wednesday, the market has expected that the Philippines may cancel the ban on ore export policies, and the support previously provided to the futures price by the strong nickel ore market has weakened. Technically, this week, the futures price broke below the 120,000 - yuan mark, with strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Aluminum: On June 16th, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May 2025, the added value of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative added value from January to May increased by 7.1% year - on - year. The output of ten non - ferrous metals in May was 6.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the cumulative output from January to May was 33.4 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in May was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to May was 18.59 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0% [9]. - Nickel: On June 17th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,990 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Russian nickel was +600 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,090 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,240 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 117,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social warehouses + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE copper warrant inventory [11][13][14] - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]