Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 17, the closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%. The position was 51,143 lots, a decrease of 728 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quoted price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,401 yuan/ton. Coke is in a pattern of double - decline in supply and demand, and the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging. Recently, the marginal decline in coking coal production, combined with geopolitical events, has strengthened the cost support for coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize [5][31]. - From January to May, coking coal futures continued to decline. The recent change in market sentiment is due to supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations from international events. For coking coal hitting an 8 - year low, short - and medium - term adjustments are reasonable. However, it will take time to reverse the current pattern of loose supply. Without policy intervention, supply pressure may return after July. The impact of the Sino - US London economic and trade consultation on the terminal demand for ferrous metals is limited, and the key factor may be whether the Israel - Iran conflict will trigger a new round of international energy price increases. Since June 3, the price of the coking coal 2509 contract has stopped falling and gradually increased, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation [6][32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Industry News - On June 16, US President Trump said that the US would postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that at the US request, a new round of bilateral consultations between Russia and the US to normalize diplomatic relations had been cancelled [8]. - On June 17, in the online auction of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market, 0.3 million tons of low - sulfur main coking coal failed to be sold, and the starting price was 1,070 yuan/ton. For high - sulfur lean coal, 1 million tons were sold at a price of 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from June 13 [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke flat - warehouse price was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 5.22%, an annual decline of 24.85%, and a year - on - year decline of 36.18%. Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was 1,180 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.28%, an annual decline of 27.16%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.80% [10]. - The price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decline of 2.81%, a monthly decline of 5.98%, an annual decline of 26.69%, and a year - on - year decline of 45.94%. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%, a monthly decline of 4.72%, an annual decline of 18.79%, and a year - on - year decline of 43.46%. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.10%, an annual decline of 18.30%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.02% [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%, a maximum price of 1,378.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,357.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 20,990 lots, a volume difference of - 9,838 lots, a position of 51,143 lots, and a position difference of - 728 lots [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal active contract was 789.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a maximum price of 808.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 785.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 1,019,537 lots, a volume difference of - 9,258 lots, a position of 562,767 lots, and a position difference of - 16,234 lots [13]. Related Charts - Charts show the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mills' coking plants, ports, etc.) on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025, as well as other related data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][26][28] Market Outlook - The coke market has limited fundamental positives, but the cost - side support from coking coal has increased, driving the price to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level. Continued attention should be paid to the raw material side [5][31]. - The coking coal market has seen a short - and medium - term price rebound, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation. A phased rebound approach is recommended, but beware of the falsification of the upward logic [6][32]
煤焦日报：多空因素交织，煤焦震荡调整-20250617
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-06-17 13:42