甲醇周报：地缘不确定性高，建议暂时观望-20250617

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][4][38] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The development of the Middle East situation is the main factor influencing methanol's trend. If the geopolitical situation further escalates, the expected surplus in the methanol market may turn into a shortage in the short term. However, considering the poor overall profits of downstream industries and their limited acceptance of high - priced methanol, large - scale maintenance may occur if profits deteriorate further, leading to a re - balance of supply and demand. Given the high uncertainty of geopolitics, methanol may remain highly volatile in the short term [4][38] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From June 9th to June 16th, methanol prices rose significantly, mainly due to the Middle East situation. Most methanol plants in Iran are operating at low loads, causing concerns about future shipments from Iran, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices also boosted the energy and chemical sector [4][9][38] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis in East China has increased, and the 09 - 01 spread has also risen. Affected by the Middle East situation and low inventory at East China ports, the spot price in East China has risen significantly, driving up the basis. On June 6th, the basis in East China was 36 yuan/ton, and on June 16th, it was 116 yuan/ton. The 09 - 01 spread increased from - 63 yuan/ton on June 6th to 0 yuan/ton on June 16th [12] 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation - Coal - to - methanol profits have rebounded slightly, and upstream operation remains at a high level. As of June 13th, the FOB price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 618 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 6th, and the FCA price of Datong thermal coal was 535 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Under high - profit conditions, the operating rate of inland coal - based enterprises remains at a historical high. As of June 12th, the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 80.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.42 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 48.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.25 percentage points [14] 3.2 Inventory - The Middle East situation may affect future port inventory accumulation. The increase in arrivals from Iran had previously alleviated the low - inventory pressure at ports, and inventory at East China ports began to accumulate in late April. The change in the Middle East situation may affect future inventory accumulation. As of the week of June 12th, the inventory at East China ports was 33.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.37 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.08 million tons; the inventory at South China ports was 17.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82 million tons; the inventory in the Northwest region was 23.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.73 million tons [20] 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand - Attention should be paid to the possible recurrence of demand negative feedback. Methanol - to - olefins (MTO) is the largest consumer of methanol, accounting for over 50%. Recently, the profits of coastal MTO plants have declined significantly, and the profit of inland MTO plants is also relatively low. If profits further deteriorate, the large - scale shutdown and maintenance of coastal plants in May last year may recur. As of June 12th, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 85.85%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 12.34 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally for olefin production was 85.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.33 percentage points [23] 4.2 Traditional Demand - The operation of traditional downstream industries has rebounded, but profits remain poor. Traditional downstream industries of methanol include acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, with consumption shares of about 5.59%, 5.65%, 4.84%, and 1.65% respectively. The operation of traditional downstream industries rebounded last week, mainly contributed by acetic acid and MTBE. However, overall, downstream profits are still poor, and their acceptance of high - priced methanol may be limited [30] 5. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2550 [4][38]