中东地缘冲突升级，甲醇步入强势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The military conflict between Iran and Israel has led to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants, significantly impacting the global methanol market and the Chinese futures market. In the short term, Iran's supply disruption has caused international energy market turmoil and affected the Chinese methanol futures market. In the long - term, it will accelerate China's diversification of methanol imports and domestic substitution, upgrade the industrial chain risk management system, and prompt strategic reserve and regulatory optimization policies [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Introduction: Middle East Situation Changes and Impact on Iranian Methanol Plants On June 13, 2025, after five rounds of US - Iran nuclear negotiations, Israel launched a "decapitation operation" against Iranian military leaders and bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering strong retaliation from Iran. As a result, many Iranian oil, energy, natural gas, and methanol facilities were affected. On June 15, 4 methanol plants with a total annual capacity of 6.6 million tons in Iran were suspected to be shut down for maintenance, and the remaining plants were operating at low loads [9]. 3.2 Chapter 1: Decreased Supply Expectations and Strong Uptrend of Methanol The military conflict between Israel and Iran on June 13, 2025, led to the shutdown of key Iranian methanol production plants. The supply disruption caused international energy market turmoil and affected the Chinese methanol futures market. With the expected decrease in external supply, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract rose significantly on June 14, with a maximum increase of 5.71%. On June 17, the price continued to rise by 4.63% [10]. 3.3 Chapter 2 & 3: Impact of Iranian Shutdown on the Global Methanol Market - Short - term supply gap and difficulty in finding substitutes: Other major exporters like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and New Zealand have capacity bottlenecks, transportation issues, and contract constraints, making it hard to fill Iran's supply gap. European buyers turning to American sources face high costs and long - cycle transportation [20]. - Adjustment of China's import structure and inventory pressure: China will adjust its import sources, but Saudi methanol has inflexible long - term contracts, North American sources are affected by seasonal demand and transportation, and South American sources lack price competitiveness. This may lead to a rapid decline in domestic port inventories [22][24]. - Cost transmission and开工率 fluctuations in the production end: The increase in international methanol prices due to Iranian shutdown will push up domestic spot prices. Some small and medium - sized methanol enterprises may reduce or halt production, while large coal - chemical enterprises may adjust raw material ratios. Overall, the industry's开工率 is under downward pressure [25]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Methanol Price Transmission Mechanism and Futures Market Reaction No specific content provided in the given text. 3.5 Chapter 5: Short - term Impact Analysis of the Domestic Methanol Futures Market - Price trend and volatility characteristics: In the initial 1 - 3 days of the conflict, methanol futures prices showed a pulsed increase with larger intraday fluctuations. The price increase may slow down and enter a consolidation phase. If the Iranian plants are repaired faster than expected or alternative supplies are effective, prices may fall [26]. - Position structure and capital flow: The futures market's position structure will change. Industrial clients may increase hedging positions, and speculative clients will have different trading strategies. Risk - averse funds may flow into the methanol market [27]. - Delivery risk and warehouse receipt liquidity: Rising futures prices may cause delivery pressure on long positions. Strict quality standards for warehouse receipt registration, limited warehouse capacity, and delayed arrival of imported methanol may exacerbate delivery risks [28]. 3.6 Chapter 6: Long - term Impact and Structural Changes - Accelerated import diversification and enhanced domestic substitution: China will seek more long - term contracts with countries like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar, and expand trade with North and South America. Domestic coal - to - methanol enterprises will be encouraged to upgrade technology, reducing import dependence [30]. - Optimization of the industrial chain risk management system: Enterprises will strengthen inventory management, establish multi - source supply channels, and use more refined hedging strategies. Financial institutions may introduce more methanol - related structured products [31]. - Policy regulation and strategic reserve construction: The government may introduce policies to support the methanol industry and explore the establishment of a national reserve system for methanol to enhance market stability [32]. 3.7 Chapter 7: Conclusion and Outlook The military conflict between Iran and Israel has had a profound impact on the global methanol market and the Chinese futures market. In the short term, it has disrupted supply and affected prices. In the long term, it will drive China's import diversification, domestic substitution, and the improvement of the risk management system and policies [33].