Lilly(US:LLY)2025-06-18 00:54Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for both Zepbound and Wegovy, with physicians rating Zepbound higher in efficacy, tolerability, and patient satisfaction compared to Wegovy [7][36]. Core Insights - Zepbound is expected to continue gaining market share from Wegovy, with a projected 60:40 split in favor of Zepbound within a year [7]. - The removal of compounded GLP-1s is anticipated to benefit both Novo and Lilly, with nearly 75% of patients expected to switch to branded products [7]. - Physicians expect Zepbound and Wegovy to retain approximately 50% of the market share in five years, with oral GLP-1s and next-gen high-efficacy products capturing the remaining share [7]. - Reimbursement remains a significant hurdle, with around 40% of patients denied coverage for GLP-1s, primarily due to lack of insurance coverage and insufficient comorbidities [9][40]. Summary by Sections Key Obesity Survey Takeaways - Zepbound has overtaken Wegovy in prescriptions, with current shares at 42% for Zepbound and 40% for Wegovy [28]. - Physicians expect a 60:40 split in favor of Zepbound in the next year as compounded GLP-1s exit the market [28]. - Cost is the primary reason for treatment discontinuation, affecting both Zepbound and Wegovy similarly [62]. Key Novo Takeaways - Novo is expected to benefit from the reduced availability of compounded products, with Wegovy gaining around 50% of patients switching from compounded drugs [11]. - The launch of oral Wegovy and other high-efficacy products is crucial for Novo to maintain market share [11]. - Efforts to improve reimbursement processes are expected to unlock significant market growth for both Novo and Lilly [11]. Key Eli Lilly Takeaways - Zepbound's market share is projected to grow from approximately $12.5 billion in 2025 to nearly $20 billion by 2027 [13]. - The pipeline for Lilly's incretin franchise is expected to expand significantly, with oral GLP-1s anticipated to capture around 20% market share in five years [13]. - LillyDirect and other direct-to-consumer channels are becoming increasingly important for Zepbound's market penetration [13]. Reimbursement Insights - The survey indicates that 40% of patients prescribed GLP-1s are denied reimbursement, with the most common reasons being lack of insurance coverage and insufficient comorbidities [40]. - Approximately 60% of patients denied coverage opt for out-of-pocket treatments [41]. - As insurance coverage improves, the fill rate for GLP-1 prescriptions is expected to increase, benefiting both Novo and Lilly [44]. Market Share Expectations - In five years, Zepbound is expected to maintain a leading share of around 30%, with Wegovy and oral GLP-1s each capturing approximately 20% [48]. - Physicians anticipate that the use of weight loss medications among heavier patients (BMI ≥40) will increase significantly if higher efficacy options become available [51].