HIKVISION(SZ:002415) Goldman Sachs·2025-06-18 00:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Hikvision with a 12-month target price of Rmb30.6, reflecting a cautious view on the saturated surveillance market and macro uncertainties [1][13][15]. Core Insights - Hikvision is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenues, projecting a 5% year-over-year growth in 2Q25, reaching Rmb24.7 billion, driven by overseas and innovative business expansion [1]. - The company is focusing on higher-margin business segments and leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, including the launch of the Guanlan AI Model for complex scenario analysis [2][15]. - Earnings estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised down by 26%, 19%, and 18% respectively, primarily due to weaker-than-expected performance in the China Public Sector Business (PBG) and Small-medium Enterprise Business (SMBG) [3][7]. Revenue and Earnings Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 have been adjusted from Rmb115.1 billion to Rmb106.4 billion, reflecting an 8% decrease [7]. - The gross profit (GP) for 2025 is revised down to Rmb46.9 billion, also an 8% reduction from previous estimates [7]. - Net income for 2025 is expected to be Rmb14.3 billion, a 26% decrease from earlier forecasts [7]. Margin Analysis - The gross margin (GM) for 2025 is revised to 44.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [7]. - Operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to decline to 14.4% in 2025, down from 18.6% [7]. - Net margin (NM) is projected to be 13.5% for 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.3 percentage points [7]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of Rmb30.6 is based on a 16.5x target P/E multiple applied to the 2026 EPS estimate, which is consistent with the company's historical P/E trading range [7][13]. - The report indicates that the new target multiple is derived from the correlation between P/E and net income growth [9][13]. Market Position and Strategy - Hikvision is positioned as a global leader in the surveillance industry, benefiting from potential industry consolidation and expanding into AI surveillance and innovative business areas [15]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its solutions to include emergency response, safe production, and cost-saving technologies [1][15].