摩根士丹利：美国经济-未来仍有疲软态势

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report indicates that while there are no clear signs of a tariff push in inflation data, higher goods inflation is expected in the coming months. The Fed may gain confidence that the inflation increase will be transitory due to slower core services growth. Weaker consumption growth is anticipated ahead [6][8][11] Summary by Sections Inflation Data - CPI core goods prices fell by 0.04% in May, with no clear signs of tariffs impacting inflation. The forecast for core PCE is an increase of 0.17% month-over-month [8][9] - The effective tariff rate for the US is currently at 14%, the highest in nearly a century, which is expected to influence consumer prices in the future [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Fed is expected to maintain its current policy stance, with forecasts likely to be adjusted to reflect a higher effective tariff rate, leading to revised inflation forecasts and lower growth outlooks [12][46] - The Fed's median funds target is anticipated to remain at 4.1%, with expectations of two rate cuts this year despite potential upward revisions in inflation forecasts [12][47] Consumption Growth - Real consumption growth is projected to slow significantly as inflation rises, with the weakest quarters for consumption growth expected in Q4 and Q1 of the following year [17][18] - High-income households may fare better against rising prices, while low- and middle-income households are likely to be more adversely affected due to their reliance on labor income [18] Container Traffic and Trade - Container traffic from China to the US has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions, although tariff rates remain high [25][26] GDP Tracking - The report estimates 2Q GDP growth at 2.5%, with variations in forecasts from different Fed tracking measures [30][31]