金信期货日刊-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The urea futures market has rebounded for three consecutive days, but further rebound faces many constraints. It is advisable to take a short - term bullish and long - term bearish approach [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate, affected by factors such as the Israel - Iran conflict and the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum [7]. - The gold market remains bullish, and it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [11]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective, considering supply, demand, and price support [14]. - The glass market should be regarded as fluctuating in the short term, pending the effects of real estate stimulus or major policy changes [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures - On June 17, the main contract of urea futures led the futures market with a nearly 4% increase, driven by changes in international geopolitical situations that altered export expectations [3]. - However, from the supply side, the supply - demand contradiction is not substantially alleviated, with daily production exceeding 200,000 tons and large inventory - removal pressure. In 2025, about 4 million tons of new production capacity will be added, and the oversupply pattern is hard to change [3]. - From the demand side, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is shrinking. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has dropped to 37.13%, and that of melamine has decreased by 8.3%. As of June 15, enterprise inventory reached 142210 tons, far exceeding the equilibrium threshold of 80000 tons [3]. - Currently, the domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is still slow, and the urea price continues to be weakly adjusted. When it reaches the previous support area, short - sellers should be vigilant against strong long - side rebounds [22]. A - share Market - The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Today, the three major A - share indexes opened higher and closed lower, with a small - amplitude oscillating decline throughout the day and a rebound at the end of the session, finally closing with a doji star. The news is bearish [8]. Gold Market - Due to the Israel's raid on Iran, geopolitical risks have intensified. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it also follows the upward trend. The gold market remains bullish, and it is only a matter of time before a new high is reached. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [11]. Iron Ore Market - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has seasonally weakened, and port inventories have returned to the accumulation stage. The weak reality increases the risk of over - valuation of iron ore. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and industrial repair status. Technically, the price tested the lower support level today, and the market should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14]. Glass Market - On the supply side, there is no major cold - repair situation due to losses, factory inventories are still at a high level, the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong, and demand has not continued to increase significantly. Technically, it showed a narrow - range fluctuation today, and it should be regarded as fluctuating in the short term [18].