Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the macro - economic data continued the overall stability of 2025, but the recovery momentum still needed to be strengthened. The real GDP growth rate was stronger than the nominal GDP. The domestic economy showed strong resilience with robust industrial production and high - speed consumption, but also faced challenges such as weak price index, falling real estate sales growth, and declining export growth. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, and the pressure on the price index was higher than that on real GDP. Macro - policies were needed to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [2][34][35] Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month, but the Strength was Weak - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points. The production index was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities. The new order index was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, showing a recovery in market demand. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points. The rebound of manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the domestic economic recovery momentum still needed to be enhanced [3][6] 2. In April, CPI Declined 0.1% Year - on - Year, and PPI Fell 2.7% Year - on - Year, with Prices Remaining Depressed - In May 2025, the national CPI declined 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy increased 0.6% year - on - year, with a slight rebound. The PPI declined 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the industrial producer purchase price declined 3.6% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. The fall in global commodity prices such as crude oil dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [7][8][10] 3. In April, Exports Increased 8.1% Year - on - Year, and Imports Declined 0.2% Year - on - Year - In May 2025, the total import and export volume was 528.98 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth of 1.3%. Exports were 316.1 billion US dollars, up 4.8% year - on - year; imports were 212.88 billion US dollars, down 3.4% year - on - year; the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars. Exports to the US declined 34.5% year - on - year, to the EU increased 12.0% year - on - year, to ASEAN countries increased 14.8% year - on - year, and to Japan increased 6.2% year - on - year. The high export growth in April might be related to "re - export trade" and "rush to export" by enterprises, while the decline in May might be due to the end of "rush to export and replenish inventory" by overseas enterprises. The export growth was expected to further decline in the second half of 2025 [12][14] 4. M1 Significantly Rebounded in May - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of May, the stock of social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.7%. In May, residents' short - term loans decreased by 208 million yuan, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 746 million yuan. Enterprises' short - term loans increased by 1.1 billion yuan, medium - and long - term loans increased by 3.3 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 746 million yuan. The M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 2.3%, and the M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 7.9%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 5.6%. The credit in May continued to be weak, but the M1 growth rate significantly rebounded [16][20][21] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth was High - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in May was 4.1326 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.4%. The high - speed growth of consumption was due to consumption subsidies and trade - in policies. The consumption of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment maintained high growth rates, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth. The investment in fixed assets continued to slow down, and the real estate development investment was still in a downward trend, but the decline was narrowing [22][23][25] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it had Conditions for Stabilization - From January to May, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real estate development enterprises all declined. The unsold area of commercial housing decreased slightly. Although the real estate market cooled in the second quarter, it was still in an improving trend. The year - on - year decline in sales area and volume was expected to further narrow. There was room for further strengthening of real estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle was emerging [28][30][33] 7. Summary and Outlook - The domestic economy showed strong resilience with stable industrial production and high - speed consumption growth, but the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. The main factors affecting the macro - economy and asset price repair were insufficient market demand and structural over - capacity in multiple industries. Macro - policies were needed to boost market confidence and expand effective demand, and the supply - side needed to be cleared. The macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [34][35]
5月宏观数据分析:房地产销售有所回落,经济复苏动能仍待增强
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-06-18 01:07