研究所晨会观点精萃-20250618

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long - position [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious observation [3] - Black Metals: Short - term low - level oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - Energy and Chemicals: Short - term volatility intensifies, cautious long - position [3] - Precious Metals: Short - term high - level strong - biased oscillation, cautious long - position [3] 2. Core Views - The global risk preference has cooled overall due to the weakening US economic data and the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel's attack on Iran. In China, the economic growth is generally stable, but the short - term Middle East geopolitical situation has affected market sentiment [3][4] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions based on the current economic and geopolitical situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May retail sales were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The weakening economic data and geopolitical tensions made investors nervous, the US dollar rebounded after a decline, and the global risk preference cooled [3] - Domestic: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk preference in the short term, but the Middle East situation dampened it [3][4] - Assets: Stocks oscillate in the short term, cautiously long - position; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level, observe cautiously; black metals oscillate at a low level, observe cautiously; non - ferrous metals oscillate, observe cautiously; energy and chemicals have intensified volatility, cautiously long - position; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level, cautiously long - position [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, game, film and television, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The economic fundamentals are stable, but the Middle East situation impacts market sentiment. The market focuses on Middle East risks, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long - position [4] Precious Metals - The gold market oscillated narrowly, and silver rebounded. The Middle East situation is the main influencing factor. If the two sides return to the negotiation table, the gold risk - premium may decline rapidly, and silver will remain in consolidation [5] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets were stable, but demand may weaken due to industrial and real - estate pressure. Supply may not decline significantly in the short term. The market will oscillate at the bottom [6][7] - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron - water production may remain high, supply is expected to be high in the second quarter, and the rising coking coal price will suppress the iron - ore price. Short - term interval oscillation [7] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys declined. The market rumors were false. Short - term interval oscillation [8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Global economic slowdown and high tariffs do not support a sharp rise. Pay attention to US trade policies and tariff decisions [9] - Aluminum: The warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory decline slowed down. The demand - boosting policy has uncertainties, and the demand may weaken [9] - Aluminum Alloy: In the off - season, the orders are weak, but the tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. Short - term oscillation, limited upside [9] - Tin: The supply is tight, the processing fee is low, and the production resumption may be delayed. In the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. Short - term oscillation, upside pressure [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Trump's remarks increased concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East, although the export facilities are currently unaffected [12] - Asphalt: The price followed the oil price to test the previous high. The shipment was stable, the profit recovered, and the inventory decline stagnated. Follow the oil price at a high level [12] - PX: The price followed the oil price to rise. The maintenance is concentrated in June - July, and the PTA operation rate increased. It will oscillate strongly [12] - PTA: The basis increased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory transfer improved. It will oscillate strongly, pay attention to bottle - chip production cuts [13] - Ethylene Glycol: The price is stable, the downstream inventory decline is limited, and the synthetic - gas production resumed. It will oscillate at the bottom [13] - Short - fiber: It oscillated strongly following the polyester sector. The terminal orders recovered slowly, and the inventory accumulated. Follow the oil price [14] - Methanol: The domestic price declined slightly, the port basis strengthened. The supply may be affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply is expected to increase. Short - term strong [16] - PP: The price adjusted slightly. The production increased, the demand was weak, and the cost supported the price. It may face a callback after a short - term rise [17] - LLDPE: The price increased, the import window opened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production restarted, and the demand was weak. Pay attention to the oil price [18] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The overnight CBOT soybean oil futures fell, triggering profit - taking pressure. The US Senate proposed a $1 - billion tax bill [20] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The US soybean market drove the soybean meal futures up, but the domestic supply and demand will be looser. The rapeseed meal demand increase was insufficient [20] - Oils: The tension in the Middle East made the palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material, and the palm oil exports increased [20] - Corn: The arrival of corn in Shandong was low, and the northeast corn provided support. Import auctions and wheat substitution may cause corn to consolidate at a high level [21] - Hogs: The weight reduction of large - scale farms was limited, the spot market was stable, and the demand is expected to improve seasonally [21]