朝闻国盛：百年复盘，寻找当下黄金的历史坐标

Core Insights - The current ten-year government bonds have high investment value, optimizing risk-return performance in portfolios and showing low correlation with other assets like stocks and gold [2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for ten-year bonds, with a loose monetary policy and weak credit demand, leading to better performance compared to other assets during this phase [2][3] Ten-Year Government Bond Historical Analysis - The long-term trend indicates a downward shift in interest rates, primarily driven by declining real returns, with expectations of lower financing costs due to weakening prices [3] - Financial institutions are experiencing a downward trend in earnings, with deposit and investment product yields decreasing further from the beginning of the year [3] - Supply-demand dynamics and central bank liquidity support are expected to drive interest rates lower, with a potential asset shortage emerging as bond supply slows [3] Ten-Year Government Bond Advantages - Interest rates are anticipated to reach new lows, with expectations of the ten-year bond yield dropping to 1.4%-1.5% within the year [4] - The ten-year bond serves as a crucial benchmark rate, balancing long and short-term funding needs and is a key reference for pricing other financial products [4] - The 国泰上证 10-year government bond ETF is the only ETF tracking the ten-year bond index, utilizing an optimized sampling method to enhance liquidity and reduce trading costs [4][5] ETF Characteristics - The 国债 ETF operates on a T+0 trading mechanism, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which facilitates multiple trading opportunities within a single day [5] - The ETF maintains transparency in holdings, with daily disclosures, making it suitable for conservative long-term investors [5] - The ETF has low fees, high liquidity, and a strong historical performance, managed by experienced fund managers [5] Industry Performance Overview - The steel industry saw a 6.9% year-on-year decline in crude steel production in May, indicating a need for further observation regarding production strength [14] - The coal industry experienced a continued decline in imports, with a slight increase in thermal power generation, suggesting a potential rebound in demand [15]