市场情绪回暖，橡胶偏强震荡

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [7] - Pigs: Oscillating Bearish [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [12] - Cotton: Oscillating Bearish [13] - Sugar: Oscillating Bearish [15] - Pulp: Oscillating Bearish [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [19] Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and rubber is oscillating bullishly. The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided. Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals. The spot price increase of corn/starch has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating. The supply and demand of pigs are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. The synthetic rubber futures are moving horizontally. The pulp market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly. The cotton price is slightly oscillating with weak rebound momentum. The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded. The fluctuation of logs has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - View: The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided [5]. - Logic: The EPA's biofuel blending obligation proposal is beneficial to the demand expectation of US soybean oil. The US soybean planting progress is good, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The production increase expectation of Malaysian palm oil in June is limited, and the export expectation is optimistic. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [5]. - Outlook: Driven by positive factors such as the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices, and the EPA's biofuel proposal, oils and fats may operate bullishly in the near future, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase and the technical resistance at key levels [5]. 2. Protein Meal - View: Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals [6]. - Logic: Internationally, the rise in crude oil and the EPA proposal are beneficial to US soybeans. The sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going well, but the excellent - good rate is lower than expected. The freight has increased, and the discount of South American soybeans has risen. Domestically, the strengthening of overseas soybean prices has boosted the domestic soybean meal futures. The basis in East China has rebounded. Although the soybean arrival volume will increase in the next two months, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is not under pressure for the time being, and the market demand is stabilizing [6]. - Outlook: The US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating range. The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly. Oil mills can actively sell hedging at high prices, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low prices. Unilateral positions can be bought at low prices, and a 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be adopted [6]. 3. Corn/Starch - View: The spot price increase of corn has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating [7]. - Logic: The domestic corn price is generally stable, and the rise has slowed down. The supply of corn is affected by factors such as the low arrival volume at Shandong deep - processing enterprises, the outflow of corn in the Northeast, and the new wheat listing. The demand for corn in the feed and deep - processing industries has changed. In the medium term, the import of grains is tightening, and the inventory reduction expectation for the 24/25 season is established [7]. - Outlook: Driven by the expected production - demand gap, the trend is still upward, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of the import auction policy [7]. 4. Pigs - View: The supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level [8]. - Logic: After the previous weight reduction and price decline, the reluctance of farmers to sell has fluctuated. The demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, the slaughter weight of pigs is decreasing, and the supply of large pigs is still large. In the long term, the pig production capacity is still at a high level, and the number of newborn piglets has been increasing [8]. - Outlook: Oscillating bearishly. The near - term contracts are under pressure due to the release of large - pig inventory, and the far - term contracts are affected by the expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [8]. 5. Natural Rubber - View: The market sentiment is warm, and the futures are oscillating bullishly [10]. - Logic: The resurgence of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has boosted the commodity market sentiment. Although natural rubber has no direct relationship with crude oil, it is driven by the strong market sentiment. The supply side is affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has rebounded slightly. The demand side has seen a partial recovery in the start - up of tire enterprises, but the demand expectation is still weak [10]. - Outlook: The impact of external events on the futures will continue to dominate, but the duration is unknown. The Ru futures may maintain an oscillating bullish trend in the short term due to the low off - standard basis [10]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - View: The futures are moving horizontally [12]. - Logic: The geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East has made the international crude oil price temporarily strong, which has driven the BR futures to be bullish. The fundamentals of BR are relatively neutral. The operating rate of private enterprises has declined, but the inventory has increased slightly. The price of butadiene has declined, and the market supply is relatively abundant [12]. - Outlook: The geopolitical conflict may last for at least one week, and the emotional disturbance to the futures may continue. Although the downward trend in fundamentals remains unchanged, short - term participation should be cautious, and the futures may operate oscillating bullishly [12]. 7. Cotton - View: The cotton price is slightly oscillating, and the rebound momentum is weak [13]. - Logic: The 25/26 season's cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The demand side has entered the off - season, and the inventory of textile products has increased. The commercial inventory of cotton has been depleted faster than in previous years, which may support the old - crop contracts, but the upward driving force is not strong [13]. - Outlook: Oscillating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and oscillating bearishly in the long term [13]. 8. Sugar - View: The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded [15]. - Logic: After the continuous decline of the external market driving the domestic market to new lows, the external market has rebounded, and the short - term decline of the domestic market has slowed down. The fundamentals of the sugar market have changed little. The new - season global sugar supply is expected to be loose, but the short - term downward space of sugar prices is limited. The appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar and the strong crude oil price are beneficial to sugar prices. The domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrival of imported sugar [15]. - Outlook: Bearish in the long term due to the expected supply surplus in the new season; the sugar price may rebound for valuation repair in the short term [15]. 9. Pulp - View: The market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly [16]. - Logic: The pulp futures have slightly declined, and the supply and demand are still weak. In the short term, the pulp import volume remains high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium term, the import pressure is still large, and the demand peak season will not start until August [16]. - Outlook: The supply is resilient, and the demand remains weak. The pulp futures are expected to operate oscillating bearishly [16]. 10. Logs - View: The fluctuation has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [19]. - Logic: The log futures have risen and then fallen, and the delivery game is intensifying. The spot price center of mainstream ports has risen due to the clearance of old goods. The supply pressure will ease at the end of June or early July, and the demand is in the off - season. The profit of downstream processing plants is recovering, and the market sentiment may lead to price support [19]. - Outlook: The supply pressure is expected to last until the end of June to early July, and the demand has no obvious improvement expectation. The short - term fundamentals maintain a weak balance. The futures may fluctuate sharply in the short term due to the high virtual - to - real ratio of the delivery game [19].