宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will show a strong trend, with PX having a view score of 1, PTA a view score of 1, and PR a view score of 1 [2] Core View - The international oil price fluctuates around geopolitical risks, and the recent significant fluctuations in oil prices affect the PX trend. Although the overall PX supply capacity has increased, the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still in a state of inventory reduction. The PTA market has a slight increase, but the supply will increase in the month, and the downstream polyester factories resist high basis prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere, with stable and falling supply - side quotations. The polyester industry chain currently has an unoptimistic demand and generally fluctuates with costs [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On June 17, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $74.84 per barrel, up 4.28%; Brent crude oil was $76.45 per barrel, up 4.40%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $625.63 per ton, up 0.24%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $745 per ton, up 1.98%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $884 per ton, up 2.08% [1] - PTA: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,782 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; the settlement price was 4,750 yuan per ton, down 0.54%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,020 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; the settlement price was 4,956 yuan per ton, down 0.88%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 5,018 yuan per ton, up 0.26%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 5,020 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; the external price index was $651 per ton, up 0.77%. The near - far month spread was 206 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the basis was 238 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] - PX: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,776 yuan per ton, up 0.27%; the settlement price was 6,730 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,960 yuan per ton, down 2.41%; the settlement price was 6,922 yuan per ton, down 2.94%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $862 per ton, up 0.82%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $863 per ton, up 3.11%. The PXN spread was $258.38 per ton, up 6.82%; the PX - MX spread was $139 per ton, up 2.58%. The basis was 92 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan [1] - PR: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,982 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.37%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,082 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the settlement price was 6,048 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market was 6,170 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 68 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in the South China market was 188 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [1] - Downstream: The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and short - fiber remained unchanged on June 17, 2025. The price index of polyester chips was 5,970 yuan per ton, down 0.83%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.07%, unchanged. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 83.80%, up 2.23%; of polyester factories was 89.99%, up 0.25%; of bottle - chip factories was 82.46%, unchanged; of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.33%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - The sales rate of polyester filament was 31.00%, up 1.00%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester chips was 48.00%, up 7.00% [1] Important Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. The international oil price fluctuates around geopolitical risks. The PX supply capacity has increased, but the medium - term inventory is still decreasing. The PTA market has a slight increase, but the supply will increase in the month. The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere [2] Trading Strategy - The PTA is in a high - level shock, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,782 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the intraday trading volume being 1.42 million lots. The PX is greatly affected by crude oil, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,776 yuan per ton (up 0.06%), and the intraday trading volume being 292,600 lots. The PR follows the cost, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,982 yuan per ton (unchanged), and the intraday trading volume being 54,900 lots. Due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the polyester industry chain is expected to have PX, PTA, and PR showing a strong trend [2]