工业硅、多晶硅日评：低位整理-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term, but the downward space may be limited. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to have no upward trend in the short - term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1]. Summaries by Related Information Industry Data - In the first quarter of 2025, global manganese ore consumption reached 5 million tons, a 1% year - on - year increase and a 6% quarter - on - quarter increase, mainly due to the growth of ferrosilicon - manganese production and inventory accumulation. The demand mainly came from China, while the global supply was stable at 4.6 million tons [1]. - Since 2025, India has issued multiple GW - level photovoltaic project tenders, with a photovoltaic project scale of about 7.1GW and a supporting energy storage system of about 2.2GW/8.8GWh, with an average energy storage duration of 4 hours [1]. Price Information Industrial Silicon - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 7,360 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. Polysilicon - N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 32.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 29.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 34,010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day [1]. Others - Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices remained unchanged, while organic silicon prices (DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil) decreased [1]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On the supply side, some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion, and those in the southwest were hesitant to resume production despite approaching the wet season. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, organic silicon enterprises had strong intentions to cut production to support prices but faced weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1]. Polysilicon - On the supply side, although some silicon material factories may have new capacity, the overall production is expected to increase slightly but remain within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [1]. Forecast and Strategy Industrial Silicon - The silicon market is expected to operate under pressure at a low level in the short - term, and the downward space may be limited. It is necessary to continue to monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short - term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. It is necessary to continue to monitor the changes on the supply side [1].