BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-06-18 01:38Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for May 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the expected 6.0% and the previous value of 6.1% [3] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1% [3] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, below the expected 4.1% and the previous value of 4.0% [3] - The decline in industrial added value is attributed to fewer working days and a lag in production due to tariff adjustments, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries like textiles [3] - The service sector's production index grew by 6.2%, indicating a slight improvement from April [3] Consumption Growth Challenges - The significant rise in retail sales is driven by holiday consumption and promotional activities, reaching a new high in nearly a year [4] - Automotive sales increased by 11.2% year-on-year, but overall sales revenue growth is limited due to pricing factors [4] - Future consumption may struggle to maintain current levels due to policy adjustments and potential overconsumption [4] Investment Needs Policy Support - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for two consecutive months, with manufacturing investment decreasing by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8% year-on-year [4] - Ten out of twelve sub-sectors in manufacturing saw a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in transportation equipment and non-ferrous metal smelting [4] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased to 9.3%, with local debt pressures limiting project funding [5] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline, with sales in major cities dropping and funding sources for real estate companies decreasing by 10.5% year-on-year [5] Fixed Income Research - The overall issuance rates for credit bonds have mostly decreased, with a range of -7 basis points to 6 basis points [7] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds seeing an increase in net financing [7] - The secondary market for credit bonds has seen a significant increase in transaction volume, with most varieties experiencing growth [7] - The credit spreads for medium and short-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds have generally narrowed [7] Industry Research - The metal industry is experiencing traditional seasonal characteristics, with demand expected to decline as summer approaches [15] - Steel prices are expected to remain weak due to increasing inventory pressures [15] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, but lack upward momentum in the short term [15] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions and geopolitical factors, with a need to monitor macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations [15] - The lithium market faces oversupply issues, leading to expected price weakness [15]