铅锌日评：沪铅宽幅整理，沪锌反弹空间有限-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on zinc [1] Core View - The lead price is supported at the bottom and will be range - bound in the short term, with subsequent focus on demand improvement and macro uncertainties. The zinc price rebound space is limited [1] Summary by Related Indicators Lead - related Indicators - SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,725.00 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract is 16,860.00 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. The Shanghai lead basis is - 135.00 yuan/ton, up 95.00 yuan. The Shanghai lead futures active contract trading volume is 29,996.00 lots, down 0.81%. The position is 41,457.00 lots, down 1.43%. The LME lead inventory is 287,450.00 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 45,503.00 tons, unchanged. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 1,976.00 US dollars/ton, down 1.52%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.53, up 0.83% [1] - The primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. The recycled lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost - price inversion. The recycled lead finished product inventory is increasing. The demand is expected to improve as it transitions from the off - season to the peak season [1] Zinc - related Indicators - SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 21,940.00 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,905.00 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The Shanghai zinc basis is 35.00 yuan/ton, down 55.00 yuan. The Shanghai zinc futures active contract trading volume is 124,389.00 lots, down 24.14%. The position is 105,668.00 lots, down 9.11%. The LME zinc inventory is 128,875.00 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 9,788.00 tons, down 1.79%. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,636.50 US dollars/ton, down 0.88%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 8.31, up 1.19% [1] - Hindustan Zinc (HZL) approves a 120 billion - rupee (about 1.39 billion US dollars) capacity expansion project, aiming to increase annual zinc production from 102 million tons to 200 million tons in the next few years. A northwest zinc smelter plans to add a 70,000 - ton zinc alloy production line by the end of the year and a second - phase project in 2026 [1] - The zinc concentrate supply shortage is improving, the refinery profit and production enthusiasm are increasing, and the production volume is on the rise. The end - user demand is in the off - season, but the downstream purchase has improved after the zinc price decline [1]