市场聚焦印度泰国产量改善，原糖短期承压

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Shock" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the 2024/25 sugar production has ended successfully, with China's cumulative sugar production reaching 11.16 million tons as of the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons, and cumulative sugar sales reaching 8.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.52 million tons. The sales progress is 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The precipitation in Guangxi and Yunnan since May has been beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the growth of beets in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is also good. Internationally, India is expected to increase sugar production in the 2025/26 season, and the global sugar supply is expected to be loose, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1] - For cotton, due to US tariffs, cotton imports have not met expectations. The overall light and temperature conditions in the national cotton-growing areas since sowing are suitable for growth. Most cotton development periods are 3 - 15 days earlier than usual, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on yield per unit [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Data Tables 1. Price Changes - From June 16 to 17, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 3.35% to $16.45, and the price of US cotton decreased by 0.60% to $67.64. The spot price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% to 6030 yuan, and in Kunming it increased by 0.51% to 5865 yuan. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.28% to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.68% to 14700 yuan [3] 2. Spread Changes - From June 16 to 17, 2025, the spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and SR09 - 01 for sugar all increased, with increases of 12.50%, 8.33%, and 7.03% respectively. The spreads of CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 for cotton changed to -5, 10, and -5 respectively [3] 3. Basis Changes - From June 16 to 17, 2025, the basis of sugar contracts 01, 05, and 09 increased by 5.07%, 5.95%, and 3.57% respectively, and the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09 increased by 3.26%, 2.87%, and 3.64% respectively [3] 4. Import Price and Profit Changes - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at $78.15 from June 16 to 17, 2025, and the import profit of sugar also remained unchanged at 1663 yuan [3] 5. Option Information - The implied volatility of SR509C5700 is 0.0874, and the historical volatility of its underlying futures SR509 is 8.58. The implied volatility of SR509P5700 is 0.0772. The implied volatility of CF509C13600 is 0.0939, and the historical volatility of its underlying futures CF509 is 12.63. The implied volatility of CF509P13600 is 0.0961 [3] 6. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From June 16 to 17, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 28586, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.40% to 10682 [3] Group 4: Company Introduction -信达期货有限公司 is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It has various memberships in multiple domestic futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [9]