银河期货BR日报-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical factors, and trading strategies of BR (butadiene rubber) and RU/NR (natural rubber). It takes into account factors such as production, consumption, inventory, and price changes in the rubber market, as well as external factors like international trade policies and the performance of the automotive market, to provide investment suggestions for different trading scenarios [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - BR Market: From May 22 to June 25, 2025, the price of the BR main 07/08 contract fluctuated. For example, on May 22, it closed at 12145 points, and on June 25, the BR main 08 contract closed at 11470 points. The prices of different brands of butadiene rubber in various regions also showed certain changes [1][65][88]. - RU/NR Market: The prices of the RU main 09 contract and the NR main 07/08 contract also fluctuated during the same period. For instance, on May 22, the RU main 09 contract closed at 14785 points, and on June 25, it closed at 14045 points. The prices of different types of natural rubber in different regions and markets also changed accordingly [2][66][85]. Important News - Automotive Industry: In May 2025, the Chinese automobile market continued to perform well, with production and sales increasing by over 10% year - on - year. The sales of Chinese brand passenger cars also increased significantly. In April 2025, the EU passenger car market showed signs of recovery, but the market share of pure electric vehicles did not meet expectations [2][12][56]. - Rubber Industry: In May 2025, the price of Sinopec's butadiene reached a five - year high. The listing of the "Shanghai Natural Rubber Futures" contract on the Osaka Securities Exchange in Japan was a milestone in Sino - Japanese capital market cooperation. Some tire companies made production adjustments, and new tire production bases were planned to be built [51][66][76]. Logical Analysis - Supply and Demand: The production of natural rubber and synthetic rubber showed different trends. For example, in April, the production of natural rubber in major producing countries increased, while the production of synthetic rubber relatively increased. The inventory of rubber also changed, with some warehouses having inventory reductions and others having accumulations [3][13][77]. - Market Factors: The change in global stock market value, the price of Brent crude oil, and the capacity utilization rate of butadiene and other factors affected the rubber market. For example, the increase in global stock market value with a slowdown in growth rate was negative for the BR single - side market [3]. Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: For the BR main 07/08 contract, the strategies included holding short positions, holding long positions, and waiting and watching, depending on different market conditions and price levels. For example, on some days, it was recommended to hold short positions and set stop - loss levels at previous high points [3][13][57]. - Arbitrage Trading: For spreads such as BR2508 - NR2508 and BR2509 - RU2509, the strategies included holding positions, reducing positions, and waiting and watching, and setting stop - loss levels at appropriate price points [3][22][52]. - Options Trading: Generally, the option trading strategy was to wait and watch [3][22][52].