宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250618

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to face downward pressure, with the price likely to be weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line and the change in hot metal [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel mills increase maintenance, leading to a continuous decline in ore terminal consumption with further decline potential. Although port arrivals and miners' shipments have decreased, overseas ore is still at a high level due to miners' end - of - fiscal - year volume rush. Based on shipping schedules, subsequent arrivals are expected to increase, and domestic ore supply is weakly stable. The supply of ore has remained high recently. The supply - demand pattern has not improved, and the futures price discount is being repaired. Therefore, the ore price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly [2]