生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250618

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | 2025-06-18 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Analyst [5] - Contact: Email - shixy@hrrdqh.com, Phone - 0371-69106756 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall view on the pig market is weak - oscillating. The main reasons are that the pig supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, so there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract [4]. Summary by Section 1. Market Dynamics - On June 17, the number of registered pig warehouse receipts was 750 lots. The LH2507 contract focuses on the convergence of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are oscillating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in future slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) added 927 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,855 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,755 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,815 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of sows capable of reproduction, the pig supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the pig slaughter volume will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may oscillate and adjust [3]. - Market bearish logic: slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters. Bullish logic: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and limited increase in future slaughter volume while gradually entering the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is weak - oscillating. The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract as its price is currently in a relatively reasonable range [4]. 4. Market Data - On June 17, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.23 yuan/kg, a 0.14% increase from the previous day. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased slightly. Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 09, and 11 contracts increased slightly, while the 03, 05 contracts decreased. The main basis in Henan decreased by 4.81% [6].