宝城期货煤焦早报-20250618

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Views - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a reference view of "low - level oscillation" [1] - For coking coal, the market sentiment change is due to supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations from international events. It has stopped falling and rebounded, but the supply - easing pattern may return, and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices needs further assessment [5] - For coke, it maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline in the off - season. The cost support from coking coal has strengthened, driving the price to stop falling and rebound slightly [7] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Price: On the night of June 17, the main coking coal contract oscillated around 790 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton [5] - Core Logic: Supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations have led to a short - and medium - term adjustment. But it will take time to reverse the supply - easing pattern, and the supply pressure may return after July. The impact of geopolitics on coal prices needs further assessment [5] Coke - Price: On the night of June 17, the main coke contract oscillated narrowly. After three rounds of price cuts, the price has been stable this week. The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1270 yuan/ton, week - on - week unchanged, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1401 yuan/ton [7] - Core Logic: It maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline in the off - season. The marginal decline in coking coal production and international events have strengthened the cost support, driving the price to stop falling and rebound slightly [7]