集运日报：以伊冲突继续扩大，原油大涨超4%，商品反弹情绪较强，风险偏好者可考虑逢高试空-20250618

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Amid the expansion of the Israel-Iran conflict, crude oil prices have soared by over 4%, and there is a strong sentiment of commodity rebound. However, due to the high difficulty of trading in the current geopolitical situation, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. - Given the lack of substantial progress in the second China-US talks and no new positive factors, the market is likely to decline rather than rise. The spot market price range is set, with slight price cuts to test the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Indexes - NCFI: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1536.84 points on June 16, down 7.94% from the previous period. The NCFI European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4%; the NCFI US West route was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% [1]. - SCFIS: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points on June 16, up 4.6%; the SCFIS US West route was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% [1]. - SCFI: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 2088.24 points on June 13, down 152.11 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62%; the SCFI US West route was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% [1][2]. - CCFI: The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1243.05 points on June 13, up 7.6%. The CCFI European route was 1488.87 points, up 6.6%; the CCFI US West route was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% [1][2]. Market Conditions - Crude Oil: Crude oil prices continued to surge by over 4% last night, increasing the trading difficulty for the European routes due to their strong macro - attributes [3]. - Eurozone Economic Data: In May, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49), the services PMI was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1), the composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [2]. - China's Economic Data: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2]. - US Economic Data: In May, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (expected 49.9, previous 50.2), the services PMI was 52.3 (expected 51, previous 50.8), and the composite PMI was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [2]. Trading Strategies - Short - term Strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, consider shorting with a light position when it rebounds above 2250; for the 2510 contract, consider going long below 1450, and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Pay attention to the court's ruling, and currently adopt a positive spread structure [3]. - Long - term Strategy: Take profits when each contract rallies, and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before determining the subsequent direction [3]. Market News - Geopolitical News: On June 17, the Israeli military announced that it had killed Iranian top military commander Ali Shadmani, which is expected to further intensify the Israel - Iran conflict [4]. - Environmental Cooperation News: The 10th China - EU Environmental Policy Ministerial Dialogue was held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to deepen cooperation in the field of ecological environment [4]. Contract Adjustments - Circuit Breakers: The circuit breakers for contracts from 2506 to 2604 were adjusted to 16% [3]. - Margin Requirements: The margin requirements for contracts from 2506 to 2604 were adjusted to 26% [3]. - Intraday Opening Limits: The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [3].