贵金属日报：金震银涨，聚焦周四凌晨美联储FOMC-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term investors are advised to closely monitor the impact of changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and focus on the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting regarding inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects. Short - term corrections are still regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed gold fluctuating and silver rising. The surrounding US dollar index rose, the 10Y US Treasury yield fell, and the US stock market declined, indicating an increase in the demand for US dollar safe - haven assets. The final closing prices were: COMEX gold 2508 contract at $3406.5 per ounce, down 0.32%; US silver 2507 contract at $37.18 per ounce, up 2.01%; SHFE gold 2508 main contract at 785.08 yuan per gram, down 1.46%; SHFE silver 2508 contract at 8864 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.01 tons to 945.94 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14675.36 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 20.2 tons to 1215.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 Key Events This Week - The US retail sales month - on - month rate announced on Tuesday was - 0.9%, lower than the expected - 0.7%, and the previous value was revised down. The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Tuesday maintained the third on - hold stance this year. The focus this week is on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:03. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision at 19:00 on Thursday [4]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Suggestions - For London gold, the short - term technical trend has weakened. Support levels are around 3365, with strong support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3400, 3450, and strong resistance in the 3500 area. For London silver, the short - term trend has strengthened. Support levels are in the 36.9 - 37 area, then 36, 35.5, with strong support in the 34.8 - 35 area, and the upside space has opened up to the 40 area, and even 45 is possible [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of precious metal futures and spot prices, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity markets, such as the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [24].