苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Fundamentally, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness in styrene remains unchanged. However, the recent trend of the styrene futures price is significantly affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see until the macro situation stabilizes before entering short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Styrene Price Range Prediction and Hedging Strategies - Price Range Prediction: The monthly price range of styrene is predicted to be between 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 85.8% [2]. - Inventory Management Hedging Strategies: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short styrene futures (EB2508) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,350 - 7,450 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (EB2508C7500) to collect premiums, with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 160 - 200 [2]. - Procurement Management Hedging Strategies: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy styrene futures (EB2508) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,150 - 7,250 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (EB2508P7200) to collect premiums, with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 120 - 140 [2]. 3.2 Core Contradiction The near - term strength and long - term weakness pattern of styrene in the fundamentals remains unchanged, but the recent futures price is greatly affected by macro factors. It is advisable to wait and see and enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3]. 3.3利多解读 - Inventory Reduction: As of June 16, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 6.63 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons (- 17.13%) from the previous period. As of June 12, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 18.46 tons, a decrease of 0.68 tons (- 3.55%) from the previous period [4]. - Oil Price and Valuation: The intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, driving up the valuation of styrene [4]. - Pure Benzene Price Increase: Macro - level benefits and downstream factory restocking have supported the rise in pure benzene prices. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6,300 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4利空解读 - Terminal Demand Pressure: The terminal demand for styrene is under pressure [6]. - Pure Benzene Inventory Increase: As of June 16, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 15.3 tons, a 2.68% increase from the previous period. European pure benzene supplies are expected to arrive in mid - to late June, leading to a high volume of future arrivals [8]. - Supply Increase: The previously shut - down pure benzene and styrene production facilities are gradually resuming operation, and the peak maintenance period has passed, resulting in an increase in supply [8]. - Tariff Policy: The US Department of Commerce announced on June 12 that starting from June 23, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on household appliances containing steel components [8]. 3.5 Styrene Basis and Industrial Chain Spread - Basis: The basis data of styrene in different regions and contracts on June 17, 2025 are provided, showing the differences and changes compared to the previous day [9]. - Industrial Chain Spread: The spreads of the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain in different types (spot, paper goods, etc.) and time periods (0617, 0614) are presented, along with their changes [9]. 3.6 Styrene Daily Report - Industrial Chain Prices - Raw Material Prices: The prices of various raw materials such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, and pure benzene in different markets on different dates (June 17, June 16, June 10) are provided, along with their daily changes [10][11]. - Styrene Prices: The prices of styrene in different markets (FOB, CFR, domestic regions) and contracts (EB2506 - EB2509) on different dates are given, along with their daily changes [11]. - Profit Data: The profit data of styrene production (integrated and non - integrated), as well as the profit data of downstream products (such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, etc.) are presented [11].