安粮期货安粮观市

Group 1: Macroeconomics and Stock Index - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is rising, and the weakening dollar is beneficial to the risk appetite of emerging markets. The domestic economy shows a "stable and progressive" trend, with the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth significantly increasing, investment in science - and - technology manufacturing accelerating, and the export structure tilting towards the mid - to - high - end market. The monetary policy remains flexible and appropriate, and ample liquidity supports the market. Attention should be paid to the policy signals of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th, and the Middle - East situation may cause increased volatility. Neutral strategies are recommended for IH and IF, such as holding short out - of - the - money options or lightly long positions. For IC and IM, inter - period spread arbitrage can be arranged, or long forward contracts can be bought at low prices to hedge against fluctuations [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The development of the Israel - Iran conflict is a key factor affecting oil prices recently. The market is starting to wait and see, and volatility has increased significantly. Fundamentally, the peak summer season for crude oil is coming, and U.S. inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, which supports the rise in oil prices to some extent. However, in the medium term, the Middle - East situation, especially Iran's counter - attack against Israel's attack, needs to be closely monitored. If the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise. Many institutions predict that if the regional conflict further expands, oil prices may return to the high - price range. If the driving factor fades or the conflict de - escalates, the risk premium of crude oil will also decline rapidly. The WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Iran has released signals to ease the Israel - Iran conflict, but the fire incident of three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified the tension, and the safe - haven demand has pushed up the price of gold. Trump announced the suspension of sanctions against Russia at the G7 summit, which led to a partial decline in the gold price, but geopolitical uncertainties still exist. As of the early Asian session on June 17th, spot gold was trading around $3380 - $3400 per ounce, rising slightly during the day and touching the $3400 mark. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around $3385 and the resistance around $3450. The Middle - East risk premium (short - term) and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation (medium - term) support the price, but profit - taking behavior restrains the increase. In the short - term strategy, the development of the Israel - Iran conflict is the core driving factor. If the situation deteriorates, the gold price may break through around $3450; if there is a diplomatic breakthrough, it may fall to the support area of $3250 - $3300. The differences in trade at the G7 summit should also be synchronously monitored. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the global economy, the intensification of trade frictions, and the rising inflation expectation may provide structural support for gold [4] Group 4: Silver - As of the Asian session on June 17th, the international silver price was trading in a narrow range between $36.1 - $36.5 per ounce, and the increase in the warehouse receipt volume indicates intensified long - short competition. Iran is seeking to mediate the Israel - Iran conflict through Oman and Qatar, but Israel claims to have "controlled the airspace over Tehran", and Iran warns of an "unprecedented" attack. The risk of conflict escalation supports safe - haven assets. The tariff differences between the U.S. and Europe remain unresolved (the EU may accept a unified tariff of 10%), but the market focus has shifted to the Middle - East situation. If the U.S. intervenes, it may further push up precious metals. The gold - silver ratio is still at a historical high, and the industrial demand for silver and the logic of a supplementary rise attract funds. The positions of Shanghai silver have increased in the past five days, highlighting the bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the key support at $36 per ounce. Currently, it is still in a volatile market. If the Middle - East situation eases, the safe - haven demand may weaken, and if the Fed's interest - rate cut pace fails to meet expectations, it may suppress the upward space of the silver price [5] Group 5: Chemical Industry PTA - The spot price in East China is 5020 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan per ton and a basis of 270 yuan per ton. The Middle - East geopolitical factors led to a relatively strong trend in the cost - end crude - oil price last week, which supports the PTA price, but the upward space is limited. In June, PTA plants are undergoing both maintenance and restart, with the overall operating rate maintained at 83.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The available inventory days are 4.03 days, basically the same as the previous period but still at a historical low, showing a continuous de - stocking trend. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The textile market is in the off - season, with weak orders and a lack of positive stimuli, and inventory pressure is gradually emerging. In general, the cost - end crude - oil fluctuations provide short - term support, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA itself still dominates the price trend. In the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost end [6] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is reported at 4470 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 33 yuan per ton and a basis of 70 yuan per ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, some Middle - East plants have shut down, but the overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 55.07%, a month - on - month increase of 2.71%, and the coal - based operating rate is 55.28%, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%. The weekly output is 33.71 tons, an increase of 1.82 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports of East China is 56.38 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.42 tons. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%, and the terminal order days are 9.91 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 days. Currently, the ethylene - glycol market focuses on geopolitical factors and cost - end price changes in the short term, and needs to track tariff policies and the recovery of downstream demand in the medium term. In the short term, it may fluctuate slightly to the upside [7] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4750 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 300 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week it was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47% and a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%, and the ethylene method was 72.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In terms of demand, there is no obvious improvement in domestic downstream product enterprises, and transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 12th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% month - on - month to 57.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.83%. Among them, the inventory in East China was 52.20 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.25%; the inventory in South China was 5.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.69%. Affected by market sentiment, the futures price rebounded slightly on June 17th, but the fundamentals of PVC have not improved significantly, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [8] PP - In the spot market, the mainstream price of PP raffia in North China is 7161 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7195 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 44 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7308 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week the average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 77.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. The domestic polypropylene output was 77.56 tons, an increase of 1.79 tons compared with last week's 75.77 tons, a rise of 2.36%; compared with the 65.54 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 12.02 tons, a rise of 18.34%. In terms of demand, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.97%. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the port sample inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 0.18 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.71%, and inventory was successfully reduced last week. On June 17th, the futures price rebounded slightly, mainly due to market sentiment. The fundamentals are weak, there is no obvious driving force, and the futures price may oscillate. Be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [9][10] Plastic - In the spot market, the mainstream price in North China is 7386 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7560 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7721 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27 yuan per ton. From the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 79.17%, an increase of 1.76 percentage points compared with the previous period. From the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.49% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.53% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.45% compared with the previous period. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 50.87 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%, and the inventory trend changed from increasing to decreasing. Driven by the increase in the cost - end price of crude oil, the futures price rebounded on June 17th. Currently, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, the futures price may oscillate, and be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1214 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1350 yuan per ton, in North China is 1400 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1350 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the overall operating rate of soda ash was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.14%. The soda - ash output was 74.49 tons, an increase of 4.08 tons compared with the previous period, a rise of 5.79%. Recently, equipment operation has been relatively stable, and there are few maintenance enterprises. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory was 168.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 tons, a rise of 3.64%. It is understood that the social inventory decreased by nearly 2 tons, with a total of more than 32 tons. The demand side shows average performance. Mid - and downstream enterprises replenish their inventories for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, and it is expected that the futures market will continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term. Continuously pay attention to equipment maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [12] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1117 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The market price of 5mm large - size glass in East China is 1230 yuan per ton, in North China is 1130 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1070 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the operating rate of float glass was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The weekly glass output was 109.12 tons, a decrease of 0.67 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 0.61%. Recently, the supply level has not fluctuated much, but there are still plans to ignite production lines from June to July. Pay attention to production - line changes. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory of float glass was 6968.5 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a decline of 0.1%. With the coming of the rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure cannot be ignored. The demand side remains weak and has not improved significantly. In the short term, it is difficult for the glass demand to improve substantially, and it is expected that the futures market will oscillate weakly in the short term. Continuously pay attention to changes in enterprise inventory, production - line changes, and market sentiment [13][14] Rubber - The spot price of rubber: domestic full - latex is 13900 yuan per ton, Thai smoked three - piece is 19500 yuan per ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 15000 yuan per ton, and No. 20 rubber is 13650 yuan per ton. The raw - material price in Hat Yai: smoked sheets are 66.87 Thai baht per kilogram, latex is 56.95 Thai baht per kilogram, cup lump is 47.2 Thai baht per kilogram, and raw rubber is 64 Thai baht per kilogram. Rubber is mainly driven by market sentiment to rebound, but the repeated situation of the U.S. resuming trade - war tariffs and the supply - exceeding - demand fundamentals restrict the rebound height of rubber. Pay close attention to the recent strength of the crude - oil chemical sector. Fundamentally, domestic full - latex has started production, the Yunnan production area has fully started production, and the supply of Hainan latex has begun to increase. The Southeast - Asian production areas have fully started production, and the overall supply is in a loose state. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. This week, the operating rate of downstream tires for passenger cars is 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The operating rate of truck tires is 58.7%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 4.95%. The market is hyping up macro - narratives such as the trade war. The U.S. imposing tariffs on automobiles and expanding the scope of tariffs on household appliances may seriously suppress global rubber demand. Pay close attention to the operating conditions of rubber downstream enterprises. Currently, the operating rate has rebounded this week, and combined with macro - sentiment, it drives the rubber price to rebound. Pay attention to factors such as domestic rubber import volume and inventory changes [15][16] Methanol - The domestic spot price of methanol has generally increased. The spot price of methanol in East China is reported at 2585 yuan per ton, an increase of 95 yuan per ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is reported at 2455 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared with the previous trading day. In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, with a stock of 65.2