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原油:或延续强势挑战85美元,多单持有
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-18 02:27

Report Overview - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, providing price data, market news, and trend analysis [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil may continue to strengthen and challenge the $85 mark. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]. - The trend strength of crude oil is rated as 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Market News - The Israel-Iran conflict has made the shipping industry uneasy, with many vessels avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a decline in the number of ships passing through and an expected increase in shipping costs [2]. - The US API reported a -22.8 million barrels per day change in crude oil production, a 34.9 million barrels per day change in refined oil imports, and a -1013.3 million barrels change in crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 [2]. - The CPC Blend crude oil exports from the Black Sea will remain at 165 million barrels per day in July [2]. - Russia's President Putin will hold talks with the OPEC Secretary-General on the oil market on June 20 [2]. - The UAE plans to increase its energy investment in the US six-fold to $440 billion in the next decade [2]. - The EU suggests that member states formulate national plans by March 1, 2026, to end Russian oil imports by the end of 2027 [2]. - The IEA warns that tightening carbon emission rules and economic slowdown will weaken the growth of marine fuel demand [2]. - Russia's oil exports decreased by 23 million barrels per day in May, resulting in a revenue loss of $480 million [2]. Market Forecast - The OPEC monthly report predicts that US shale oil production will stabilize at 905 million barrels per day next year, and the average daily production of OPEC+ in May was 4123 million barrels, an increase of 18 million barrels from April. It also maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 130 million barrels per day and 128 million barrels per day, respectively [5]. - The IEA monthly report states that the oil market will be well-supplied in 2025 and 2030 without major disruptions. It forecasts that the total crude oil demand will reach 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026, and the global oil supply will be 104.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106 million barrels per day in 2026 [5]. - Fitch expects the geopolitical risk premium of oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict to be controlled at around $5 - $10. Significant damage to Iran's production or export infrastructure will further push up prices [5]. - Goldman Sachs still expects an oversupply of liquefied natural gas in the market, leading to near-capacity natural gas storage levels in Northwest Europe in the summer of 2027 [5]. Price Changes - WTI crude oil for July delivery rose $3.07 per barrel, or 4.28%, to $74.84 per barrel. Brent crude oil for August delivery rose $3.22 per barrel, or 4.40%, to $76.45 per barrel. SC2508 crude oil futures rose 31.90 yuan per barrel, or 6.13%, to 552.50 yuan per barrel [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission of China increased domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, starting from 24:00 on June 17, 2025 [5].