对二甲苯：成本偏强，供应计划外下降，正套，PTA，多PX空PTA，MEG，伊朗多套装置停车，短期偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Multiple units have unexpectedly reduced their loads, so PX is expected to strengthen in the short - term. A long PX and short PTA strategy is recommended. With supply decreasing and demand increasing, PX is in a de - stocking pattern. The PX - naphtha spread is weak as raw material prices strengthen [6]. - PTA: Polyester staple fiber plans to cut production in July, increasing the long - term supply - demand pressure on PTA. However, the spot basis for the near - month contract remains high, so a long - near and short - far (positive spread) strategy is advisable. A long PX and short PTA strategy is also recommended. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it has entered a stock - building pattern this week [6][7]. - MEG: Iranian ethylene glycol units have stopped production, so MEG is expected to be in a short - term volatile and strengthening trend. Consider reducing the position of long PTA and short MEG. The profit of ethylene glycol units has weakened this week but is still at a high level, and the unit operating rate will significantly increase. Attention should be paid to the operating and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol units due to the Israel - Iran conflict [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price and Change: On June 16, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6758, down 0.3% from the previous day; PTA main contract closed at 4766, down 0.3%; MEG main contract closed at 4374, up 0.9%; PF main contract closed at 6510, down 0.3%; SC main contract closed at 3874, up 1.2% [2]. - Monthly Spread: The PX (9 - 1) monthly spread on June 16 was 146, a daily change of - 2; PTA (9 - 1) was 112, a daily change of 6; MEG (9 - 1) was - 1, a daily change of - 3; PF(7 - 8) was 84, a daily change of 34; PX - EB07 was - 629, a daily change of 115 [2]. - Inter - variety Spread: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09 spread on June 16 was 373, a daily change of - 2; PTA09 - MEG09 was 392, a daily change of - 56; PTA07 - PF07 was - 1638, a daily change of - 50; PF07盘面加工费 was 904, a daily change of 37; PTA09 - LU09 was 937, a daily change of - 60 [2]. - Basis and Others: The PX basis on June 16 was 307, a daily change of 22; PTA basis was 220; MEG basis was 86, a daily change of 1; PF basis was - 10, a daily change of - 60; PX - naphtha spread was 234. The PTA warehouse receipts were 84853, a daily change of - 1002; ethylene glycol warehouse receipts were 6232, a daily change of - 282; short - fiber warehouse receipts were 5464; PX warehouse receipts were 0, a daily change of - 5; SC warehouse receipts were 4029000 [2]. 3.2 Market Overview - PX: On June 17, the PX price increased significantly. The estimated price of PX was 884 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars from June 16. China's PX supply has tightened, and the spot price has risen. As of June 13, China's PX operating rate was estimated at 85.8%, lower than the previous week's 87%. South Korea's May PX exports decreased by 26% month - on - month to 321,956 tons due to domestic production decline, and exports to China decreased by about 22% to 302,433 tons [4][5]. - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Shaanxi is restarting, and it is expected to produce products tomorrow. From June 16 to June 22, the planned arrivals at major ports are about 100,000 tons [5]. - Polyester: On June 17, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of about 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 56% by 3:00 pm [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1 [8]