国泰君安期货所长早读-20250618

1. Report Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18 - 19 in Shanghai, focusing on topics like financial opening - up, monetary policy coordination, etc., and may release major financial policies [8]. - For Treasury bond futures, geopolitical disturbances support market recovery, with a mid - term outlook of high - level fluctuations. The bond market is expected to oscillate or rise slightly in the short - term, and it is still recommended to maintain a view of high - level oscillation in the bond market [9]. - For naphtha and LPG, near - end geopolitical conflicts drive up crude oil prices, squeezing downstream profits. There are potential risks from geopolitical situations, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures - Geopolitical disturbances support market recovery, and the market still has strong expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in Q3. The bond market is expected to oscillate or rise slightly in the short - term due to short - term geopolitical risks, with a continued flat curve [9]. - Net long positions in Treasury bond futures have increased since June, but have not exceeded previous highs. The 30Y contract has large intraday fluctuations, and short - term speculative sentiment has warmed up [9]. 3.2 Naphtha and LPG - Near - end geopolitical conflicts drive up crude oil prices, leading to a decline in the naphtha cracking center and increased losses in Asian ethylene cracking profits. The far - month demand outlook is weakening [11]. - Middle East and Russian exports are currently stable, but extreme geopolitical risks should be monitored. The volume of arbitrage goods between the East and the West will increase significantly from June to July, posing a threat to the Asian market [11]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it may cause a significant impact on the supply of naphtha and propane, leading to production cuts in downstream chemicals [11]. 3.3 Other Commodities - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts are easing, and silver is falling from a high level. Gold trend strength is 0, and silver trend strength is 0 [19][24]. - Copper: The strong spot market of LME copper supports prices. The trend strength is 0 [26][28]. - Aluminum: Oscillating strongly; Alumina: Rebounding significantly. Aluminum trend strength is 1, and Alumina trend strength is 0 [29][31]. - Zinc: Under pressure. The trend strength is - 1 [32]. - Lead: Adjusting within a short - term range. The trend strength is 0 [34][35]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations. The trend strength is 0 [37][41]. - Nickel: Concerns about the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply has high elasticity. Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with a supply - demand imbalance and low - level oscillation. Both trend strengths are 0 [42][45]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing. The trend strength is 0 [46][49]. - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and market sentiment should be monitored. Polysilicon: Warehouse receipts have not increased, and market sentiment should be monitored. Industrial silicon trend strength is - 1, and polysilicon trend strength is 0 [50][52]. - Iron ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and it will oscillate within a range. The trend strength is 0 [53]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they will oscillate widely. Both trend strengths are 0 [54][58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Affected by sector sentiment, they will oscillate widely. Both trend strengths are 0 [59][62]. - Coke and coking coal: Safety inspections are becoming stricter, and they will oscillate widely. Both trend strengths are 0 [63][66]. - Steam coal: Demand needs to be released, and it will oscillate widely. The trend strength is 0 [68][71]. - Logs: Oscillating widely [72].