聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250618

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7000 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.33% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 21.8% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for finished product inventory, shorting plastic futures (L2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 7350 - 7400 can lock in profits and cover production costs; selling call options (L2509C7400) with a 50% ratio at 70 - 120 can collect premiums and lock in selling prices if prices rise [2] Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and based on order - based procurement needs, buying plastic futures (L2509) with a 50% ratio at 7000 - 7100 can lock in procurement costs; selling put options (L2509P7100) with a 75% ratio at 50 - 100 can collect premiums and lock in buying prices if prices fall [2] 3. Core Contradiction - Due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the polyolefin market has strengthened, but the current supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the PE market remains unchanged. The high HD - LL spread and good HDPE supply - demand with low inventory may lead to more full - density plant conversions, potentially alleviating LLDPE supply pressure. The Middle - East situation may also disrupt PE imports and support prices through higher oil costs, but price upside may be limited due to supply surplus [3] 4. Bullish Factors - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread may lead to more full - density plant conversions; the Middle - East tension drives up oil prices, supporting polyolefins; the Iran - related conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4] 5. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE plants are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year; the downstream off - season and low - profit environment reduce domestic demand [5] 6. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main contract basis on 2025 - 06 - 18 was 58 yuan/ton lower than on 2025 - 06 - 17 and 98 yuan/ton lower than on 2025 - 06 - 11. There were also various price differences among different L contracts and spreads such as L1 - 5, L5 - 9, L9 - 1, and L - P [6][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - There were price differences in different regions (North China, East China, South China) and spreads between regions such as East - North and East - South [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - There were price differences between HDPE (membrane, hollow, injection,拉丝, pipes) and LDPE membranes compared to LLDPE membranes [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price was 75 dollars/barrel, with a 5.98 dollars/barrel increase compared to before. There were also prices and profit data for other upstream products and different PE production methods [8]