Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current futures market has entered the expectation trading stage. The continuous reserve - purchase expectation has driven the formation of policy - bottom sentiment, and the long - position trading of the expectation that prices will bottom out and rise in July has led to the strong operation of the 09 contract. However, the impact path of this policy on inventory reduction has become more complex, and factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and retail farmer's hog - holding situation need to be considered. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig inventory cycle has production characteristics and persistence, with an expected reverse spread in structure, but short - term attention should be paid to capital sentiment and stop - loss operations. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,280 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 14,000 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 15,640 yuan/ton, all with a year - on - year change of 0 [1]. - Futures Prices: The price of the pig 2507 contract is 13,305 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0, and the price of the pig 2509 contract is 13,815 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - Market Operation Reason: The continuous reserve - purchase expectation has driven the formation of policy - bottom sentiment, and the long - position trading of the July bottom - out and rise expectation has led to the strong operation of the 09 contract [3]. - Policy Impact: The impact path of this policy on inventory reduction is more complex and needs to consider factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and retail farmer's hog - holding situation [3]. - Inventory Cycle: In the medium - to - long - term, the pig inventory cycle has production characteristics and persistence, with an expected reverse spread in structure [3]. - Short - term Risk: Short - term attention should be paid to capital sentiment, and stop - loss operations are necessary. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. - Futures Trading Data: For the pig 2507 contract, the trading volume is 1,006 lots, a decrease of 1,268 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 7,893 lots, a decrease of 335 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2509 contract, the trading volume is 21,972 lots, a decrease of 2,040 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,433 lots, an increase of 927 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2511 contract, the trading volume is 4,751 lots, an increase of 731 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 39,991 lots, an increase of 233 lots from the previous day [3]. - Futures Basis and Spread Data: The basis of the pig 2507 contract is - 35 yuan/ton, the basis of the pig 2509 contract is 430 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 30), and the basis of the pig 2511 contract is 465 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is 895 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 5), and the 9 - 11 spread is - 510 yuan/ton [3].
生猪：等待现货印证，远端成本中枢下移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-18 02:51