期指：震荡格局，关注陆家嘴论坛

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index futures are in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the Lujiazui Forum [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic Index Futures and Spot Data Tracking - On June 17, the closing prices, price changes, basis, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index futures contracts were presented. For example, the closing price of CSI 300 was 3870.38, down 0.09%; IF2506 closed at 3868.6, down 0.01%, with a basis of -1.78, trading volume of 61.8 billion, and open interest of 71,388 contracts, down 11,929 contracts [2] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 6,555 lots, IH increased by 2,873 lots, IC decreased by 110 lots, and IM increased by 7,130 lots. In terms of open interest, IF's total open interest increased by 1,165 lots, IH decreased by 433 lots, IC increased by 333 lots, and IM increased by 5,515 lots [2][3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7] 3.3 Important Drivers - The risk of escalation of the Middle East conflict is looming, the US stock market has declined, crude oil has rebounded strongly, and silver has reached a record high. Tesla closed down 3.9%, leading the decline among the seven major technology stocks. The US Senate bill will cancel clean - energy tax credits, causing photovoltaic stocks to plunge, with Sunrun down 40%. The US dollar index has recovered its losses since Israel's attack on Iran. Crude oil once rose 5%. Bitcoin once fell more than 5%. Silver rose more than 2% during the session, hitting a record high again after a week [7] - According to "New Fed Wire", if it weren't for tariffs, the Fed would cut interest rates this week. The Fed must weigh two important factors: rising inflation expectations and a deteriorating labor market, and determine which is more likely to occur and which has a higher cost [7] - US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline in two years, mainly dragged down by a decline in car purchases. The growth rate in April was revised from +0.1% to -0.1%. The data indicates that the rush to buy to avoid potential tariff - induced price increases has subsided [7] - The Lujiazui Forum opened today, and the window for the release of major financial policies has opened. Central financial regulatory authorities will announce several major financial policies during the forum, and the People's Bank of China is accelerating the preparation of relevant policies to support the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center [7] - US President Trump held a meeting with his national security team and then had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The US is weighing whether to further intervene in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran [7] - The three major A - share indices fluctuated narrowly, and popular concept stocks showed differentiation. Stablecoin and oil - gas sectors were active, while innovative drugs and IP economy sectors adjusted significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.04% at 3387.4 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.36%, the Northbound 50 fell 0.4%, the STAR 50 fell 0.8%, the Wind All - A fell 0.1%, the Wind A500 fell 0.03%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.15%. A - share trading volume was 1.24 trillion, the same as the previous day [7] 3.4 Positions of the Top 20 Futures Members - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in different stock index futures contracts were provided, such as for IF2506, the long position decreased by 7,207 lots and the short position decreased by 9,004 lots; for IF2507, the long position increased by 3,122 lots and the short position increased by 4,009 lots [6]