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液化石油气日报：地缘冲突持续，盘面震荡偏强运行-20250618
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-18 03:13

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel is ongoing, causing the energy sector to trend strongly. The PG futures have continued to rebound. The spot prices in Shandong and Northeast China have risen slightly, while those in other regions have remained stable. Driven by international oil prices, the market atmosphere is positive, with smooth production and sales for upstream suppliers and active participation from downstream buyers. As the center of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, Iran's LPG supply faces a downward risk. If the conflict damages Iran's oil facilities or LPG export terminals, Iran's LPG production and exports may decline continuously, tightening China's LPG raw material sources and driving up the Asian and domestic LPG markets [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - Regional Prices on June 17: Shandong market: 4560 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 4050 - 4210 yuan/ton; North China market: 4505 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market: 4580 - 4750 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market: 4730 - 4880 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4350 - 4450 yuan/ton; South China market: 4600 - 4750 yuan/ton [1]. - July 2025 Second - Half Import Prices: In East China, the price of propane is 640 US dollars/ton (up 13 US dollars/ton), and butane is 575 US dollars/ton (up 22 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 5055 yuan/ton for propane (up 100 yuan/ton) and 4542 yuan/ton for butane (up 172 yuan/ton). In South China, the price of propane is 645 US dollars/ton (up 22 US dollars/ton), and butane is 575 US dollars/ton (up 22 US dollars/ton), equivalent to 5095 yuan/ton for propane (up 171 yuan/ton) and 4542 yuan/ton for butane (up 172 yuan/ton) [1]. - Iran's LPG Situation: Iran's current monthly LPG export volume is around 1 million tons, with nearly 80% directly shipped to China. There were signs of reduced LPG shipments in June [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be volatile and trend strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict [2]. - Other Strategies: No suggestions are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2].