黑色建材日报：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡运行-20250618

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "Oscillation" [1][3][5][7] 2. Core Views - The steel market has average sentiment, and steel prices are oscillating. With construction materials entering the off - season, the production, sales, and inventory of construction materials are continuously declining. While the plate profit is better than that of construction materials, and the production and sales show strong resilience [1] - The iron ore market is in the off - season, and ore prices are oscillating. The global shipment volume has declined, the arrival volume has decreased, and the overall supply has increased. Iron ore consumption is marginally weakening, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3] - The coking coal and coke markets are oscillating. For coke, the supply is affected by shrinking profits and tightened environmental policies, and the demand is affected by the decline in iron water production. For coking coal, supply has decreased due to some mines' production restrictions, and demand is also affected by the decline in iron water production [5][6] - The thermal coal market has a marginally improved supply - demand pattern. The port inventory is continuously decreasing, and the spot resource supply is structurally scarce. In the short - term, the supply and demand at the pithead are basically balanced, and in the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are given. The national building materials' spot trading volume is 9.25 tons, showing general weakness. Construction materials are in the off - season, and the lack of speculative demand suppresses prices. The plate profit is better, and although exports have slightly declined, they remain high in the short - term [1] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures prices are oscillating. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties have slightly declined. The trading volume of main ports is 99.6 tons, a 2.36% increase, and the trading volume of forward spot is 147.0 tons, a 68.97% increase. The global shipment volume has declined, and the arrival volume has decreased due to the increase in floating volume. Iron ore consumption is marginally weakening [3] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating. The price of imported coal is weaker than the futures, and downstream procurement is cautious. For coke, supply is affected by profit and environmental policies, and demand is affected by the decline in iron water production. For coking coal, supply has decreased, and demand is also affected by the decline in iron water production [5][6] - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are recommended to be traded with an oscillating strategy. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, the output is expected to shrink due to environmental inspections, and the price is stable. At the port, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is stable. The high - calorie imported coal price is firm, and the low - calorie price is falling [7] - Strategy: There is no trading strategy [7]