贵金属日报：地缘因素令贵金属价格偏强，市场静候议息会议-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors have made precious metal prices strong, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting. The future possibility of interest rate cuts is relatively high due to Trump's pressure on the Fed. The expected change in real interest rates is likely to be downward, which is favorable for gold prices. However, the gold market may be in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. Silver prices are strong, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. Although it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution [1][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US retail sales in May were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The US dollar index weakened after the data release but quickly reversed its decline. Precious metal prices also strengthened, possibly due to complex geopolitical factors. The market generally believes that the Fed will not adjust interest rates at this meeting, but the possibility of future rate cuts is relatively high due to Trump's pressure [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On June 17, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 792.68 yuan/gram and closed at 785.08 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 192,889 lots, and the open interest was 168,935 lots. The night session closed at 787.38 yuan/gram, up 0.04% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened and closed at 8,864 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 457,021 lots, and the open interest was 409,052 lots. The night session closed at 8,988 yuan/kilogram, up 1.71% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.46%, a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.45%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 55 lots, and the short positions decreased by 28 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 382,113 lots, a decrease of 12.21% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions increased by 816 lots, and the short positions increased by 721 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 752,455 lots, a decrease of 19.76% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 945.94 tons, an increase of 4.01 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,675.36 tons, a decrease of 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 17, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -561.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 88.57, a decrease of 0.98% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 93.60, a change of -1.40% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On June 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 40,822 kilograms, an increase of 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 284,700 kilograms, a decrease of 48.26% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,652 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 32,520 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between 780 yuan/gram and 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Although it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution [8]