国际局势动荡，油脂价格震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International situations are volatile, causing the prices of oils and fats to fluctuate. The market is influenced by multiple factors, including production, exports, and policies, leading to a continuation of the volatile trend [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,446.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +10 yuan and a change rate of +0.12% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,972.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +12.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.15% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,583.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +78.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.82% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,730.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +30.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.34%. The spot basis was P09 + 284.00, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,190.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 10.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of - 0.12%. The spot basis was Y09 + 218.00, with a daily change of - 22.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +70.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.72%. The spot basis was OI09 + 197.00, with a daily change of - 8.00 yuan [1] Market News - Due to frequent spring rainfall in Arkansas, some soybean fields may not be planted, and the re - planting of some soybeans is uncertain. The state agricultural department is watching a "two - week deep - green" window period for rice. Forecasted rainfall may reduce water costs for some farms but also cause problems for other crops - The French Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the winter barley and rapeseed yields in 2025 will rebound strongly compared to 2024. The 2025 winter rapeseed yield is expected to reach 4.2 million tons, a 9.4% increase from 2024 [2] Production and Export Data - SPPOMA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia from June 1 - 15, 2025, decreased by 4% compared to the previous month - ITS, SGS, and AmSpec data show that the palm oil exports from Malaysia from June 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 26.3%, 14.3%, and 17.77% respectively compared to the previous month. The U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable, resulting in a mixed market situation and continued price fluctuations [3] Group 4: Figures in the Report - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, exports, inventory, and other aspects of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, such as daily average prices, futures closing prices, basis, import and trading profits, and monthly production and export volumes [5]