原油日报：美国下场参与中东冲突可能性增加-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Avoid and wait and see; Medium - term: Short - side allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The current situation in the Middle East is tense. The interference of ship radar signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the collision of two oil tankers have shown the risk - aversion actions of shipowners. The probability of the US directly participating in the conflict has increased, which may significantly escalate the conflict, and short - term oil prices are directly linked to the development of the situation [2] - Oil prices are highly volatile in the short - term due to black - swan events, and it is recommended to avoid and wait and see. In the medium - term, a short - side allocation is advisable [3] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a gain of 4.28%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a gain of 4.40%. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 6.13% at 553 yuan per barrel [1] - The IEA expects the total crude oil demand to reach an average of 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026; the global oil supply is expected to be 104.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106 million barrels per day in 2026. The IEA has adjusted the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 from 740,000 barrels per day to 720,000 barrels per day and that for 2026 from 760,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. The global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day, and that for 2026 from 970,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day [1] - The IEA believes that global oil demand will continue to grow until the end of this decade. Oil demand is expected to peak at 105.6 million barrels per day in 2029 and decline slightly in 2030. Global production capacity is expected to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030 to 114.7 million barrels per day. If there is no major supply disruption, supply will remain sufficient before 2030, but there are significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security [1] - The White House is discussing the possibility of a meeting between US envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi this week. The US military will send fighter jets to the Middle East and expand the scope of fighter jet deployment. US officials are worried about a wider war. If the US attacks Iran's Fordo nuclear facility, the Houthi rebels may resume attacks on Red Sea ships, and pro - Iranian militias may attack US bases in Iraq and Syria. Iran may place mines in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Investment Logic - The situation in the Middle East is tense. Although Iran and Israel have not attacked energy infrastructure, the interference of ship radar signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the collision of oil tankers have led to risk - aversion actions by shipowners. The increasing probability of US direct participation may escalate the conflict, and short - term oil prices are related to the situation [2] Risks - Downside risks: The Iran nuclear deal is reached, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3]