光大期货金融期货日报-20250618

Research Views - The A-share market fluctuated and declined, with the Wind All A index down 0.1% and a trading volume of 1.24 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices also declined. The market is affected by the Israel-Iran conflict and potential policy changes in June [1]. - The performance of Chinese assets has been strong since June, with both stocks and bonds rising. Factors include the resumption of Sino-US communication, potential changes in long-term consumption stimulus policies, and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum [1]. - The recent PPI data shows that China's inflation level remains low, and the second-quarter fundamentals may turn into a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation". The consumer and technology sectors may still be dominant in the market style [1]. - In terms of corporate earnings, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, but it is still lower than the policy interest rate. The net profit has increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the stage of bottoming out [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts up 0.24%, 0.14%, 0.15%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 1973 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with the interest rate remaining stable at 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 1833 billion yuan [1][2]. - The bond market strengthened slightly due to the loosening of the capital market, but the economy shows strong resilience under the influence of the "rush to export" effect and stable growth policies. The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,680.8 | 2,678.4 | 2.4 | 0.09% | | IF | 3,868.6 | 3,869.8 | -1.2 | -0.03% | | IC | 5,748.4 | 5,756.2 | -7.8 | -0.14% | | IM | 6,130.0 | 6,127.4 | 2.6 | 0.04% | Stock Indices | Index | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,684.0 | 2,685.0 | -1.1 | -0.04% | | CSI 300 | 3,870.4 | 3,873.8 | -3.4 | -0.09% | | CSI 500 | 5,750.9 | 5,767.8 | -16.9 | -0.29% | | CSI 1000 | 6,141.5 | 6,147.5 | -6.0 | -0.10% | Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.54 | 102.47 | 0.074 | 0.07% | | TF | 106.30 | 106.15 | 0.155 | 0.15% | | T | 109.16 | 109.02 | 0.145 | 0.13% | | TL | 120.82 | 120.52 | 0.3 | 0.25% | Market News - The Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term review of its bond purchase program in June next year and will slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases due to concerns about market volatility [5]. - The Bank of Japan believes that inflation expectations are not yet stable and that there are two-way risks to prices. Trade policy is highly uncertain, and tariff issues may affect next year's spring wage negotiations [6]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of these contracts [8][9][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [15][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates, currency indices, and cross - currency exchange rates [22][23][26].