股指期货策略早餐-20250618

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Financial Futures and Options: - Stock Index Futures: Short - term, narrow - range fluctuations; medium - term, range - bound. Suggest holding short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2506 [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term, short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, long - term bonds remain strong; medium - term, bullish. Suggest holding long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2]. - Commodity Futures and Options: - Black and Building Materials Sector: Steel prices are weak in the short - term and under pressure overall in the medium - term. Suggest continuing to sell call options on rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [5]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - Varieties: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - Short - term View: Narrow - range fluctuations, with the CSI 300 Index operating in the range of [3840, 3900] [1] - Medium - term View: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] [1] - Reference Strategy: Hold short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2506 [1] - Core Logic: Overseas geopolitical risks reduce global risk appetite; domestic May fundamental data is weak, with consumption strong, production stable, and investment weak, and financial data is mixed. The market is in a pattern of frequent style switching [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Varieties: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - Short - term View: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, long - term bonds remain strong [2] - Medium - term View: Bullish [2] - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - Core Logic: Inter - bank liquidity is stable and loose, overseas geopolitical risks boost global risk - aversion, and domestic May fundamental data is weak, strengthening easing expectations [3][4]. Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - Varieties: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [5] - Short - term View: Steel prices are weak [5] - Medium - term View: Steel prices are under overall pressure [5] - Reference Strategy: Continue to sell call options on rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [5] - Core Logic: - Raw material inventory pressure is large, and supply pressure of iron ore and coal - coke is expected to increase. High furnace profitability will increase finished steel supply [5]. - Downstream steel consumption is poor. Plate exports are not recovering, and building material demand is weak due to the off - season and lack of project funds [5][6].