聚烯烃日报：冲突加剧，聚烯烃延续走高-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy of polyolefins and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins [2] - PE's previous maintenance devices have resumed operation, and some devices are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. PP's maintenance devices have returned, resulting in greater supply - side pressure, and the upstream inventory level has a small de - stocking amplitude [2] - It is the seasonal consumption off - season, and downstream demand remains weak, mainly for terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation rate has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand is difficult to drive [2] - The production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the loss state. New maintenance of PDH devices in Shaoxing Sanyuan and Haitian Petrochemical, and the extended maintenance of Juzhengyuan have strengthened the cost support for PP [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, and the basis between LL/PP in East China and their main contracts [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operation Rate - It covers the production profit of LL (crude - oil - made), PE operation rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - made and PDH - made), PP operation rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [18][21][30] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - It involves the price differences between HD injection molding/HD hollow/HD film/LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding in East China and PP drawing [29][37][38] 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - It includes the import and export profits of LL and PP, and the price differences between different regions' FOB/CFR prices and China's CFR price [42][54][62] 5. Downstream Operation and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - It contains the operation rates of PE's downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film, and PP's downstream plastic weaving, BOPP film, and injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP's downstream plastic weaving and BOPP film [63][64][72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - It includes the inventories of PE and PP in oil - making enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [74][78][82]