Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-18 03:24Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Ship companies are attempting to increase freight rates in the first half of July, and attention should be paid to the final implementation [1]. - The supply and demand of the US route have both increased, and the freight rates on the US East and West routes have declined from their highs and may have peaked [3]. - The capacity pressure on the European route decreased in June, and there is an expectation of a price increase in August [4][7]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but the direct impact on container transportation is relatively small [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries [8]. - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and arbitrage opportunities such as going long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and going long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of June 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 90,975 lots, and the daily trading volume was 73,550 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1431.50, 1240.40, 1901.80, 2038.00, 1416.10, and 1611.00 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Prices - On June 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU. As of June 15, 2025, 37 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 557,200 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [8]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - Europe route in the remaining two weeks of June was about 236,500 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 279,400 TEU [4]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June was 321,000 TEU, the monthly weekly average capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 350,000 TEU [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a significant impact on oil transportation but a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [6]. - Ship delays dragged down the SCFIS on June 16, and it is expected that the SCFIS on June 23 will still be affected [5]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, but the freight rates on the US East and West routes have declined from their highs and may have peaked [3]. - The 8 - month period is a traditional peak season, and there is an expectation of a price increase, but attention should be paid to the peak time of the European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of the freight rates [7].