农产品日报：多空交织，棉价延续震荡-20250618

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - Cotton prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors, with limited upside potential for continuous rebound [3] Summary by Related Catalogs - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,762 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,862 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton. As of June 15, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 85%, the squaring rate was 19%, the boll - setting rate was 3%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 48% [1] - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. Macro - level positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations initially boosted domestic cotton prices, but uncertainty led to price retracement. The June USDA supply - demand report showed a decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, with a decline in ending stocks. US cotton产区 has seen improved drought conditions due to more rainfall. Domestically, commercial cotton inventories are de - stocking rapidly, but new - season cotton planting area is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices mainly follow the trend of raw sugar, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend [6] Summary by Related Catalogs - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,691 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.42%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. In the second half of May, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 5.47% year - on - year, the sugar production ratio increased, and sugar production increased by 8.86% year - on - year [3][4] - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated and closed higher. Raw sugar prices dropped to a nearly four - year low due to the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Domestically, favorable sales data supported spot prices, but with tightened imports of syrup and premixes, the supply - demand gap needs to be filled by out - of - quota imports. As raw sugar prices weakened, import profits emerged, increasing supply pressure expectations [5][6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core View - Pulp prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term due to pessimistic terminal demand expectations and a lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8] Summary by Related Catalogs - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - Market Analysis: Pulp futures prices oscillated weakly. On the supply side, Arauco's long - term contract prices have been continuously lowered, and domestic pulp imports increased in May, with high port inventories. On the demand side, European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak, with the paper - making industry in the traditional off - season from June to July [8]