甲醇日报：港口基差快速走强-20250618

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict intensifies, leading to more shutdowns of Iranian methanol plants, and the port basis strengthens significantly again with strong short-covering sentiment in paper contracts. The current stage is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts with high volatility. The short - term arrival pressure in China in June is still high, and the ports are accumulating inventory in the short term. Attention should be paid to when the reduction of imports due to problems with Iranian plants in July - August will be realized and the loading situation in Iran. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol operation rate remains high, but the inventory recovery rate of inland plants is still slow. The inland demand resilience exceeds expectations, and the operation rates of acetic acid and MTBE have rebounded rapidly [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][8][20]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of inland coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [24][28][29]. III. Methanol Operation & Inventory - It includes figures on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated ones) [32][34]. IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [36][42][50]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [51][53]. Market Data - Inland Data: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (+0), the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 693 yuan/ton (-5). Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 1988 yuan/ton (-5), with a basis of 133 yuan/ton (+4); Inner Mongolia southern line is 2000 yuan/ton (+110). Shandong Linyi is 2325 yuan/ton (-55), with a basis of 70 yuan/ton (-46); Henan is 2270 yuan/ton (-30), with a basis of 15 yuan/ton (-21); Hebei is 2195 yuan/ton (+65), with a basis of 0 yuan/ton (+74). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 379,120 tons (+8,630), and the northwest factory inventory is 237,100 tons (+2,600). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 302,090 tons (+39,910), and the northwest factory pending orders are 167,000 tons (+17,000) [1]. - Port Data: Taicang methanol is 2615 yuan/ton (+30), with a basis of 160 yuan/ton (+39), CFR China is 298 US dollars/ton (+13), the East China import spread is - 31 yuan/ton (-16). Changzhou methanol is 2500 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2505 yuan/ton (+25), with a basis of 50 yuan/ton (+34). Longzhong's total port inventory is 652,200 tons (+71,000), Jiangsu port inventory is 312,000 tons (+30,700), Zhejiang port inventory is 156,000 tons (+15,000), Guangdong port inventory is 124,000 tons (+21,000); the downstream MTO operation rate is 88.56% (+2.07%) [2]. - Regional Spread Data: The spread between northern Shandong and the northwest is - 8 yuan/ton (+20), between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is 78 yuan/ton (+35), between Taicang and southern Shandong is 40 yuan/ton (+85); the spread between southern Shandong and Taicang is - 390 yuan/ton (-85); the spread between Guangdong and East China is - 290 yuan/ton (-5); the spread between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing is 75 yuan/ton (-80) [2]. Strategy - The strategy is to cautiously make long - hedging operations [3].