煤焦：煤矿减产低于预期，盘面延续震荡

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large. Prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 Summary of logic - Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area remained stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - As of the morning of June 17, according to the latest research, coal mines in Puxian area have not stopped production. The corresponding shutdown capacity of pithead coal washing is 7.2 million tons, and the shutdown time is generally about ten days. One pithead coal washing plant that shut down yesterday has resumed production. Although coal mines are operating normally, some transportation has been affected by environmental inspections. In the short term, the reduction of coking coal supply in Linfen is less than expected [2] - Last week, the refined coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and the growth rate slowed down slightly. The raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines. Fundamentally, the driving force for coal price rebound is still insufficient [2]