华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250618

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory providing strong support and attention to macro - guidance [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The weakening US economic data and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East made the market nervous. The May retail sales in the US were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was still supported by strong salary growth. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the target range of the overnight interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% [1] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated. The cost of alumina did not change significantly, but due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down and reduced alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina [2] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing industry was in a strong off - season atmosphere. The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, and the operating rates of different sectors were divided [2] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. In mid - June, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingots slowed down significantly. Affected by the regional transfer driven by the price difference between regions, the weekend arrivals in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in Central China increased significantly, while the inventory in Foshan, South China decreased significantly, and the inventory in other domestic regions remained stable [2] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for the aluminum price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]