宏观ABC之八：博弈体系下的美国财政预算制度

Group 1: Budget Process and Structure - The U.S. federal budget process involves collaboration between the executive and legislative branches, starting with the presidential budget proposal and culminating in congressional approval[3] - The federal budget has evolved from a "legislative dominance" model (1789-1921) to a "presidential control" model (1921-1974), and currently operates under a complex interplay of both[4] - Mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare, has increased from approximately 26% of the federal budget in 1962 to 60.1% in 2024, indicating a shift towards a welfare state[5] Group 2: Fiscal Challenges and Debt - The U.S. federal budget has been in a persistent deficit, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimating that the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) could add approximately $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade[8] - Federal debt has been rising due to structural imbalances between mandatory spending and limited tax revenue, leading to a "debt snowball" effect that exacerbates fiscal vulnerability[5] - The 2023 debt ceiling crisis highlighted the political maneuvering between parties, with the House passing a bill to raise the debt limit by about $1.5 trillion while imposing spending cuts[52] Group 3: Revenue Sources - In the 2024 fiscal year, individual income tax is projected to generate $2.426 trillion, accounting for 49.3% of total federal revenue, while corporate income tax is expected to contribute $529.9 billion, or 10.77%[12][14] - The federal government relies heavily on payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare, with a uniform tax rate of 6.2% for Social Security and 2.9% for Medicare[12] Group 4: Political Dynamics - The budget process is characterized by ongoing political negotiations, with the current environment reflecting a divided government that complicates budget approvals and debt ceiling increases[51] - The introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility Act in 2023 was a result of bipartisan negotiations aimed at avoiding a federal default, showcasing the political leverage surrounding budgetary decisions[54]