Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is that the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated with a bearish view [2]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors will increase price uncertainty. In the short - term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market focus returns to a weak pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. With demand in a downward trend and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival at ports) increasing, the short - term iron ore price is expected to run weakly in a fluctuating manner [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly on a month - on - month basis. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, with Australian shipments rising notably while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. As June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments and Australian BHP and FMG mines are in their fiscal year end for volume - boosting, overseas ore shipments are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. The molten iron output has declined for five consecutive weeks, with the current daily average at 241.61 (a month - on - month decrease of 0.19). Blast furnaces are mainly under regular maintenance. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high, and the blast furnace profit is also considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking, it is expected that the molten iron output will decline from a high level but with a relatively gentle downward slope. The high - level demand supports the price [2]. Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills increased on a month - on - month basis. The daily consumption continued to decline but remained at a high level compared to the same period. As the market has a weak expectation for demand, the expectation for restocking is also weak. With the increase in the arrival volume at ports and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory has accumulated this period. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the later period, but due to the high - level demand, the pressure for inventory accumulation is relatively weak [2].
铁矿石：供需阶段性宽松，矿价短期偏弱运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-06-18 05:04