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美股策略:市场进入观察期:稳定币政策的战略意义
Guosen International·2025-06-18 05:16

Group 1: Recent Market Summary - The US-China negotiations have become more complex with the involvement of more aggressive officials, leading to increased uncertainty in trade discussions [7] - Trump's pressure on tariffs has heightened market uncertainty, with potential higher tariffs impacting various industries, particularly automotive and consumer electronics [7] - Social unrest in California due to immigration enforcement actions has disrupted local economies and increased national economic uncertainty [7] - The Middle East situation remains tense, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear negotiations, which could lead to increased geopolitical risks and market volatility [7] Group 2: Market Concerns - The trend of de-dollarization is observed, with a shift of capital from dollar assets to non-dollar markets, indirectly benefiting Hong Kong stocks [13] - Hong Kong's official foreign exchange reserves increased to $431 billion by the end of May 2025, reflecting a positive capital flow into the market [13] Group 3: US Macro Insights - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index improved to 60.5 in June, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence and expectations regarding the economy and job market [18] - The decline in inflation expectations to 5.1% for the next year suggests a more optimistic outlook for consumers [18] Group 4: Focus on Federal Reserve Meeting - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to maintain interest rates, with market focus on future rate cut signals and economic forecasts [20] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add uncertainty to the Fed's outlook, influencing market expectations for interest rate policies [20] Group 5: Stablecoins and Digital Assets - Circle's IPO has reignited interest in stablecoins, with USDC being a prominent player alongside USDT, which holds a significant market share [22] - Stablecoins are seen as a means to enhance the dollar's position in the global financial system, with potential market capitalization reaching $2 trillion [28] - Regulatory frameworks for stablecoins are being established globally, with the EU and Hong Kong implementing clear guidelines for issuance and reserves [28]