Zhongyuan Securities·2025-06-18 07:46Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][5][6] Market Performance - From the beginning of 2025 to June 16, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index achieved an absolute return of +12.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.5 percentage points [10][13] - The pet food sector has shown the highest growth, while the aquatic processing sector has also performed well [13][14] Swine Breeding Sector - The swine breeding industry is expected to enter a phase of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the second half of 2025, driven by a sufficient supply of piglets and an increase in domestic slaughtering due to reduced imports from the U.S. [15][30] - The number of breeding sows and total swine stock remains high, with a notable increase in piglet supply observed from January to April 2025 [18][30] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods have reported significant increases in piglet sales, indicating strong market dynamics [17][30] Animal Health Sector - The animal health market is experiencing steady growth, with a market size increase from 472.29 billion yuan in 2016 to 696.51 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.71% [35][36] - The introduction of new products and the expansion of demand are driving the growth of the animal health industry, particularly with the anticipated market expansion following the launch of African swine fever vaccines [41][48] Seed Industry - The seed industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on the commercialization of biotechnology breeding, which is expected to enhance market concentration and profitability for related companies [4][16][19] - The regulatory environment is becoming clearer, and companies that have passed initial reviews are now obtaining operational licenses, positioning them to benefit from the industry's growth [4][19] Pet Food Sector - China's pet food market is projected to continue growing, driven by demographic changes and rising living standards, with the market size expected to expand significantly [5][23] - The domestic pet food industry is seeing a shift towards increased online sales and domestic product substitution, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5][23][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guai Bao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., as they are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and valuation recovery [5][32]