HTSC·2025-06-18 08:14Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at the June meeting, with a focus on domestic employment and inflation trends, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting oil prices [2] - The Bank of Japan has decided to keep its policy rate at 0.5% and will slow down its balance sheet reduction starting April 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook on growth and inflation due to tariff uncertainties [3] Energy/Coal Sector - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict is likely to lead to a rebound in coal prices, as historical data shows a correlation between oil and coal prices during geopolitical conflicts [3] - The average oil-coal price ratio since 2000 is 3.37, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71, indicating a strong relationship between the two commodities [3] Consumer Sector - In May, China's retail sales reached 4.1 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies and active holiday consumption [6] - The consumer recovery is expected to continue, with a focus on structural opportunities in emerging categories driven by emotional value and technological innovation [6] Transportation Sector - Airlines have seen a steady increase in capacity and a high passenger load factor of 84.6%, with ticket prices improving for eight consecutive weeks [7] - The industry is expected to enter a profitable cycle, supported by low supply growth and effective revenue management by airlines [7] Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector has shown a mild recovery, with a cumulative increase of 1.9% from January to May 2025, ranking 12th among sub-industries [11] - Key trends include focusing on core assets, enhancing local capabilities for overseas markets, and leveraging AI and innovation for growth [11]